Georgia Democrats Need A Trump Game Plan. Yesterday.
I woke up this morning to Trump winning Nevada by runaway numbers, and in a state of Lovecraftian horror began considering the electoral math more closely.
As it happens, so did the Washington Post. They believe he is almost certainly going to get the delegates he needs. Looking at that makes me understand why Ohio Governor John Kasich insists on remaining in the race — taking Ohio away from Trump might just be the difference between Trump making his numbers before the convention or a brokered convention. Once the revulsion of a potential Trump presidency sinks in, I can understand how stopping him would take priority over considerations about winning or conserving cash … or dignity. That said, Trump is leading in Ohio.
I’ve expected a brokered convention since July or August of last year — that this whole campaign was a long confidence game designed to negotiate business concessions from either Hillary Clinton or the nominee in some back room in Cleveland, something like a free pass from HUD regulation and the EPA or naming rights for national parks in exchange for throwing the election one way or another.
I don’t think so any more. I think he’s probably got the nomination. If that’s the case, many, many Republicans in Georgia are going to sit on their hands in November. And if they do … interesting things happen down ballot. That is, if my fellow Georgia Democrats get their act together enough to pose a threat.
Someone is thinking ahead — a “Draft John Barrow for US Senate” petition started floating around this week. But Democrats have more targets. Many more.
Walk through how this all plays out. There are basically three scenarios. In scenario one, Trump simply loses the nomination and goes home. Some of his supporters gravitate to the eventual winner — Rubio or Cruz — while the rest simply sulk. This is the null case. It changes little or nothing for Georgia Democrats on the ground. It’s unlikely to happen.
Scenario two is the most interesting. There’s a brokered convention, in which Trump has the most delegates … but not enough to win outright … and the rest of the party denies him the nomination. The convention is pandemonium, and Trump runs a third-party race, taking all “true believers” with him. Under these circumstances, Trump’s run would look self-destructive and petulant even to his own people, unless he can promise something. That something would be a slate of party-switching congress-critters and local leaders, largely in the South. This is also unlikely, but less so.
In scenario three, Trump wins the nomination, either through brokering something at the convention, or outright. It is possible that some Republicans will form their own breakaway party at that point, but I doubt it. Nonetheless, Trump will demand the loyalty of his party from top to bottom — because he’s a fascist — and those who don’t will be chastised at best, and targeted at worst.
Trump will call out anyone who doesn’t follow him as pro-establishment flunkies, and may start looking for independents to run on the ballot. Hell, he may start setting that up right now. I think we’re only a few days away from hearing about primary challenges along these lines. It’s part of the negotiation: in order for him to broker a win at the convention, he’s going to need a credible threat. That’s what a credible political threat looks like.
Keep a few dates in mind. The presidential primary in Georgia is March 1. Ballot qualification for the primary election for every other office on the November ballot opens March 7 and closes at noon on March 11. The primary for state house seats is May 24. Notice to run independent has to be made by July 1, while signatures for an independent run have to be submitted by July 12. And the Republican convention will be July 18-21.
After Super Tuesday, I think we’ll know if we’re staring at a brokered convention or not. Trump’s performance here may lead a bunch of people to decide to challenge their House reps out of Trumpian zeal … or others who will want to challenge their reps because they backed Trump.
At least two Georgia state senators and an untold number of House Republicans are actively backing Donald Trump right now.
Democrats will field enough candidates in the State Senate to theoretically take a majority back, under Republican Armageddon conditions. They didn’t run enough candidates in the House last year to even make that threat possible. This time may be different.
I bring all of this up because Democrats can actually win local races in strange places if the Republican electorate is split like this. How many state house seats also become vulnerable to a Democratic flip? How many state senate seats? I think it’s about 15 house seats and four senate seats, but others may have better figures. Maybe more. (Please speculate in the comments.)
Add a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
First part of the plan should be not to compare Trump (or anybody else for that matter) to Hitler. But I get it, that’s the easy path for dems who falsely believe they will have a cakewalk to election success if/when Trump nails the nomination.
Bombastic name calling by dems is just part of the playbook. Calling trump hitler just makes whoever is doing that look like the douche they are. Typical…
No one voting for Trump has word one to say about “bombastic name calling.”
The man meets most of the criteria for fascism. Nationalist sloganeering? Think “Make America Great Again.” Check. Disdain for the recognition of human rights? Let’s make Muslims identify themselves and throw them out of the country, while deporting children. Check. Racial, religious and ethnic scapegoating of “enemies of the state” as a common threat as a unifying tactic? Think about anything he’s said about Muslims in the last eight months. Check. Military supremacy, even at the cost of social and political norms? In defense, that’s almost any Republican these days. But still … check.
Rampant sexism? Ask Megan Kelly and Rosie O’Donnell. Check. Manipulation of mass media? Obviously. Check. Fear mongering over national security and foreign threats? Check. “Law and order” obsession with crime and punishment — think about his reaction to Black Lives Matter? Check. Protection of corporate power and suppression of labor? We’re talking about Donald Trump, walking branding machine and certified union buster. Check. Disdain — if not open hostility — for intellectualism? Ahh … Check. Cronyism and corruption? Despite all the noise, Trump is a crony capitalist who has openly bragged about how many politicians he’s bought over the years. Check.
There are only two criteria he doesn’t meet: merging religion and the state, and the out-and-out stealing of elections. I put neither past him.
As I’ve said before: Consider a charismatic strong man arguing that corporate and political interests should be tied closely together, and that the nation must defend itself from vague external threats while maintaining the sanctity of its national majority culture from harm. His message is wrapped in an aggressive nationalism and a harkening back to better times, with a promise to restore “national greatness.” The message is delivered with both eloquence and in language targeting the working men of the country, whose strength has been sapped by parasites from within and threatened by sinister forces seeking to infiltrate from without.
Said strong man, a political outsider, vows to be effective regardless of the political hurdles, expressing a willingness to remake or shred the basic laws of the country to see these aims come to fruition, promising a new politics in his wake.
This strong man outsider claims superior personal characteristics — intelligence, savoir-faire, and what not — that cannot be duplicated. Power, therefore, must flow from him and him alone, if the goals are to be met.
Critics of this man are denounced in the strongest, crudest possible terms. Violence against dissenters is offered or implied in pursuit of his vision, without apology. The media is recruited, masterfully, to press the agenda and to burnish the credentials of this man as an outsider and the leader of a popular rebellion.
I prefer comparing him to Mussolini than Hitler, but the genesis is the same. He’s the uber-authoritarian. The single greatest predictive quality among his supporters is the strength of their own authoritarian orientation. That’s Trump. He’s a fascist. His supporters are fascists. And I will not make the mistake of saying less while there’s still time for him to be stopped.
George,
Even the most liberal blog claims he would be a bad match-up for your front runner Hillary who killed the middle class.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/21/1488729/-Trump-ready-for-General-Election-vs-Hillary
………1. The Iraq War
Hillary Clinton voted for it
Trump says it was a huge mistake and destabilized the Middle East
Sanders voted against it and predicted it would destabilize the Middle East
2. Bad Trade agreements (NAFTA)
The Clinton’s both Bill and Hillary lobbied for it,
Sanders against
Trump says trade deals are ‘bad’ and he’s going to ‘bring back the jobs’
3. Special Interests and lobbyists money
Hillary has received a lot of special interests money and her Wall Street ties are a big issue
Trump — self funding, beat Jeb!’s mighty corporate PACs…………
George,
More from the left showing Hillary would be the winning ticket for Trump. I was googling this after the debate about Trump and the general from the right in the morning. And it seems the left is very scared of Trump verse your leading candidate. You cannot get any harsher about your chances than this from the LEFT!
: Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, a Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency
……… Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition………
http://m.dailykos.com/stories/1490081
George,
More from Hillary from the left, taking cash for favors…..If this is from the Dem side, you know from the right it will be even rougher. Hillary/Bush…..ie establishment are getting hammered fro this BS….
………Placing a $260,000 Bet on Favorable Executive Action
Consider the final paragraph, on the final page of the ACA’s FY2014 financial disclosures (New York Section), which I might add are not available currently on the ACA NYNJ site (as of 2/21/2016). It took some digging to find the information on charitiesnys.com.
“For the March 2015 Tri-State Camping Conference, the Organization hired a high-profile politician as a guest speaker, which resulted in an additional cost of $260,000. This was a one-time expense and such expenses are not expected to occur in the subsequent year.”[11]
Returning then to my original question: Why does a non-profit spend 10 per cent of its annual budget, ten times what it would normally pay for a keynote speaker,[12] increase its annual total expense line item for “speaker presentations” from $102,784 to $350,619 for a high-profile politician and present her to an audience probably split in its political loyalties?
The answer is obvious. It was a strategic calculation on the association’s part to secure future consideration for the J-1 visa programs the industry relies on. As a near-term-future president the former Secretary of State would have tremendous discretion in rule-making given both her familiarity with the subject and the likelihood that immigration reform in a partisan Washington may be achievable only through piecemeal executive action.
There can be no doubt that Hillary Clinton was and is aware of the industry’s focused immigration interests. Of course you can make the default argument that this is just the way things are done in American politics and that there is no proof that any quid pro quo will ever take place, but it appears even more cynical to accept $260,000 from this organization in the context of these immigration and economic issues than the bottomless pockets of Goldman Sachs.
It’s disappointing that even this innocuous paid speech, the last in series of speeches rife with high-profile question marks, has a lousy backstory upon closer inspection……..
http://m.dailykos.com/stories/1489983
According to current polling, either Democratic candidate will beat Trump.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
I think his support has a ceiling. Once somebody finds a video of him having a temper tantrum, and you know there is one, and plays it on repeat in all 50 states, it will be over.
Free,
Once Hillary has to go one on one with Trump it will get ugly for her.
First Hillary will have to explain how she was not bought and paid for by lobbyist. With the fix in against Bernie by the establishment Dems, he is still hurting her on that issue ie trust! Trump makes Bernie look like a marshmallow.
Second Hillary has to explain how she did not sell out working class voters with her trade votes in the rust belt…..good luck!
Third she has to explain how her votes/support in Iraq and Libya made sense via changing the government. How is the policemen of the world foreign policy working?
Finally if Hillary plays woman card, he will hit with Monica-gate. And we saw already how hard that hit Bill and Hillary already.
The most liberal blog gets it even on your side! Nevada vote should be a wake up call with all the working class new voters coming out for Trump. No way current polls can show numbers like this in a general yet. In Nevada he more than doubled the vote from the last cycle. Everyone knows Trump was not my first choice, but the numbers are the numbers….
“Once Hillary has to go one on one with Trump it will get ugly for her.”
I think it will get ugly for everyone. Trump is an unabashed misogynist and won’t be able to contain himself. Hillary is a hard person to sympathize with. Honestly, if this is the race I’m going to hide from all media for the duration.
Free,
What you are saying is the issues do not matter to people who have lost their jobs via ill thought out trade policy by Hillary? Voters do not care for her never ending war policy in the Middle East? When she plays the woman card the Monica-gate counter will not sting like last time? Voters will ignore the pay for policy money she got caught with in her hand in the cookie jar? Your own fellow Dems do not buy it!
“What you are saying is the issues do not matter to people who have lost their jobs via ill thought out trade policy by Hillary?” Voters do not care for her never ending war policy in the Middle East? When she plays the woman card the Monica-gate counter will not sting like last time? Voters will ignore the pay for policy money she got caught with in her hand in the cookie jar? Your own fellow Dems do not buy it!”
Is your point that you can just string random sentences together and have it be persuasive? And what does “when she plays the woman card” even mean? How exactly are you envisioning the interchange?
Hillary: Trump hates me because I’m a woman
Trump: Your husband f-ed Monica
American people: WTF? I need clean water.
Free,
Please explain how Hillary explains the following to the American people:
1) Would you consider your speaking fees for 260k from the Tri-State Camping Conference a payoff, since they latter got visas to get cheap foreign workers over hiring more expensive Americans? Was this pattern of selling out American jobs with poorly negotiated trade deals all about the millions you and your husband made via speaking fees?
2) Do you and Bill think it is ok that rich kids like your daughter on a macro were not sent to fight in Iraq and Libya verse minorities and poor white kids? How has your policemen of the world foreign policy you support, helped the average American? Did any of your donors make money off this?
3) Not only do we know your three strikes and your out get tough/ War on Drug policy hurt low income areas the most, but do you not think it was conflict of interest since you took money from the private prison industry?
4) Do you regret publicly shamming Monica Lewinsky over her rights being violated at work by your husband? How many other women did you publicly shame to protect your husband? Would you understand why most parents are upset at your husband, and your behavior, would you not be upset if your daughter was treated how you and your husband did?
Would love to hear your answers?
From your side the Huntington Post, clear Hillary is selling people out for cash! This sell out job has hurt minority and poor white communities the most! Hillary rips the Koch brothers, yet they have pointed out this issue of the Clinton family enhanced War on Drugs as key driver behind poverty. It is bad enough the Clinton family pushed laws through that hurt minorities and the poor, but to take cash for it is sick!
Bernie Sanders Will Ban Private Prisons. Hillary Clinton Accepted $133,246 From Prison Lobbyists
…….Has Clinton ever sponsored a bill to ban private prisons?
No, and here is the prison lobbyist money at work; refusing to change structural issues while hiding behind bold rhetoric.
Clinton’s website states she will “End the era of mass incarceration, reform mandatory minimum sentences, and end private prisons.”
Sadly, her website forgets to mention that Hilary Clinton accepted $133,246 from two major prison lobbyists.
Why is this important in 2016?
Think Progress writes “Raking in billions of dollars, two of the largest prison corporations, GEO Group and Corrections Corpo….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-ban-private-prisons_b_9297568.html
Trump exists because the public has grown numb to being demonized. There’s no shortage of “fake outrage” and the news seems to find a new topic weekly.
You made a lot of good points. Problem is his supporters don’t care. They are tired of being made to feel like a villain themselves.
You’ve hit it squarely on the head, I think. His supporters are tired of being “politically correct.” What that means is that they’re tired of saying things that are plainly racist or xenophobic or simply and factually wrong and being called on it. They want their quiet beliefs affirmed loudly by their leaders.
George,
More than 50 percent of people have fallen out of the middle class. The reason the Trump and Bernie have take hold on both sides is people are tired of the same old BS, while thier standard of living keeps dropping. While both of them are not the smoothest communicators, their message that lobbyist have taken over verse their interest has merit. The truth is Hillary/Bush…..candidates hands are not clean via influence from money interest over the people they were elected to represent.
I happen to agree with you about the death of the middle class. And, yes, that’s driving people to Trump and Sanders.
The difference, I think, is that Trump supporters are perfectly willing to blame their economic losses on the foreign other — scheming Chinese industrialists using cheap labor, Mexican laborers stealing American jobs, lazy black people mooching on the welfare state, Muslim terrorists forcing America to overspend on defense without a return on the investment. To his credit, Trump plainly acknowledges that we’re turning into an oligarchy, and that folks like hedge fund managers and billionaires need a big tax increase to take power away from them. But the idea that the white working class had an artificial leg up on nonwhites because of exclusionary hiring and housing and education policies isn’t a critique for these folks: it’s a feature.
Sanders acknowledges this part of the economic story, and isn’t willing to stomp flat everyone who isn’t white in the process of “leveling” the playing field again. That’s the primary difference between the two.
George,
You know I like and respect you. With what you wrote, bottom line, knowing Hillary is part of the problem how could you support her? We all know she will sell out Americans for cash from lobbyist. Agree or not with the tone of the Trump campaign, would he not help workers more than Hillary?
I do not believe ushering in the era of Fascist America, which is what he’s proposing, is worth economic gains. The world knows that story, and how it ends.
So if I support Trump, I’m a closet racist/xenophobe. Come on George, you’re better than that. Pretty shallow analysis.
Actually, Three Jack, he’s not better than that. Let’s hope he doesn’t get carpel tunnel using that delete button!
My view is that one need not necessarily be a closet racist to support Trump … though I think support for Trump is itself complicity in support for overtly bigoted political policy. But closet racists are far more likely to support Trump than other candidates. At least, that’s what the exit polling is starting to show. The exception appears to be racists who are also Christian reconstructionist theocrats of the Seven Mountains dominionist / David Barton flavor. Then it’s Cruz, all the way.
Ok, I was mistaken. You convinced me that you’re absolutely what you presented from the beginning of this thread.
Trump has the most diverse support of any candidate on either side if we break it down that way. He has shown strength in all political identity categories through 4 different regions of the country (IA, NH, SC, NV). It will show even more next Tuesday as he wins multiple states by attracting voters from all walks of life. His is not a racist movement. To assume otherwise exposes the assumer as someone so closeted in his victim seeking status that he cannot rationally recognize reality.
Show me.
Eh, in fairness to Trump, much of what you say is him veering to fascism comes from fairly generic statements. Most of what he says is so vague that I don’t think you could really say he has anything resembling a coherent philosophy.
And everyone running for every national office probably anywhere in the world would have some variant of paragraph five.
But yeah, no Trump supporters can whine about insults being directed at the Don.
George,
It would be an interesting exercise to put your description out with no name attached and see who people think you are describing. My first guess would be Obama.
The only way to group Trump supporters is by their authoritarian tendencies. The higher a voter ranks on that scale, the more likely they are a Trump supporter.
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism
Exactly. Folks that prefer an orderly society, respect the law, don’t want gangs killing others, drive by shootings of children or looting or a walk-in country targeted by terrorists and opportunists , when threatened would turn to a leader that calls BS on what we have. Look no further than the carry permits and the drive to arm every citizen, including those on campus.
what was the question, who do you think best to keep you safe ?
Easy one, the Democrats should have come up with a viable candidate before she lined up the super delegates.
Hillary’s Beverly Hills designer Susanna is available to help her switch from pants suits to prison jumpsuits.
Posting tasteless characitures of Hitler in lieu of facing the real issues plays to votes for Trump. Trumps pushback on those playing the victim suggests that is not a wise road.
…and Hillary’s accusations are not of the fictional right? How long has the “Benghazi Commission” been active, and yet found nothing? Keep trying but her legal issues are purely right wing fiction
Some folks have enough common sense to grasp the hyperbole, hate info, particularly on Obama and the Clintons. I delete every chain email on them without reading them. But if you stick to paying attention the mainstream media and books you have a chance of reading between the lines. Hillary and Bill are very, very, undesirable amoral sociopaths.
I fibbed I just opened a pic of Hillary with a caption that said “voting for Hillary because she is a woman is like drinking antifreeze because it is green.” ?
Even her 1500 plus classified emails? Would you at least agree that having those on a private sever is negligent handling?
“I prefer comparing him to Mussolini”
Nah, Cruz is Mussolini, Trump is Berlusconi, which I guess makes the gop Forza Americana. Sounds about right.
Good job, George.
“Law and order obsession with crime and punishment?” Given the crime wave up in Atlanta with smash and grabs and holdups, maybe they could use some law and order up there. As for “Black Lives Matter”, well if they really do, maybe we would see that group protesting at the many abortion clinics, which harm for more blacks than police shootings. But I am not holding my breath…….
You’re not holding your breath because you know the argument requires a religious orientation most people don’t possess.
Crime has been falling for about 24 years, and is about a third of what it was at the peak in 1992 or so. That is especially true in black neighborhoods, where crime has fallen more than the nation as a whole. It’s true over any five year period in the last 20. It’s particularly true for street crime like robberies. And it’s generally true both here and in the rest of the country. The momentary variations in crime pale comparatively with the well-established long term trend both nationally and locally. Crime is down. Atlanta — and America — is safer today than any time since about 1960.
Oh … did you want to substitute sensationalized news reports about local crime for actual crime data over time, playing on irrational fears — often tainted by racism — about the threat of crime to bolster an authoritarian candidate? I’m sorry. Didn’t mean to spoil your fun.
Yeah George, it is always racism when folks complain about crime. As for religious orientation, well the Supreme Court took the abortion decision out of the states’ hands in 1973 so who knows how people feel about the issue overall? Blacks account for a disproportionate share of abortions in Georgia (maybe 55 percent), yet when was the last time a Democratic politician in this state denounced abortion? It is viewed as something of a sacrament. The Augusta Chronicle had a good op-ed about the issue a few days ago, the inconvenient truths about the issue. In any event, I suspect the number of abortions in this state far, far exceeds the number of blacks—or whites for that matter—killed by police in a given year. But hey, we’re in the PC era, right?
As for Trump, yes he is bombastic, arrogant and the like, but even apart from style, I’d like to see the press start inquiring more about his stands. Like on entitlements—he says he can “fix” the problem by clamping down on waste and fraud. You know, the many 111 year-olds receiving Social Security. And he’ll repeal Obamacare and replace it with something fantastic (like what?). “I’ll hire the best people” only goes so far.
It’s not always racism when someone complains about crime. But it’s not never racism, either. There’s a history of conservatives using “crime” as a proxy for race that isn’t going away.
And again — equating abortion to murder is something religious conservatives of a particular stripe can do all day, without meaning to the rest of us. Feel free to believe that. We don’t. Neither does the law.
“Religious conservatives of a particular stripe?” Like the 1.2 billion member Catholic Church? Or the 200 million+ Eastern Orthodox Church. Abortion was long ago condemned in the early, undivided Church from the teachings of the early church fathers. Yes, the law doesn’t believe it because the law was dictated to us by activist judges on January 22, 1973, authored by one of the worst judicial appointments in history, Harry Blackmun. (Interesting how often, Republican-appointed justices are wobbly—like John Roberts who upheld RobertsCare, while the Democratic-appointed ones are almost always reliably liberal.) We don’t know what the law would say if left to the democratic process because the Supreme Court legislated out of thin air, which is why this culture war goes on 40+ years later. But anyway, you have just confirmed the obvious that all black lives really don’t matter. It is very selective, as I suspected. As for crime being down in Atlanta, well it isn’t clear if all crimes are reported, and recent robberies at the Georgia State Library of all places, the four shot in Fairlie-Poplar last night and the countless smash and grabs we’ve had this year may lead some to wonder about that.
Speaking as a (lapsed) Catholic, I can tell you that what the Church describes as doctrine is a w-i-i-i-d-e gulf from what the laity view as religiously and spiritually acceptable. Most American Catholics aren’t exactly subscribing to canon — 64% of U.S. Catholics say they disapprove of the statement that “abortion is morally wrong in every case.”
You can pretend in these threads, all day long, that abortion equates to murder. It does not.
And if you can show me how the reporting bias across all jurisdictions over a 20+ year period means crime isn’t actually down, I welcome your data. Data, friend, not innuendo.
Yes Georgia, unfortunately too many laity follow or have followed particularly bad examples like Nancy Pelosi, Teddy Kennedy, Mario and Andrew Cuomo. The “I’m personally opposed, but…” crowd. Of course church doctrine is not a matter of the popular vote (thankfully so), as we have seen what has happened in several Protestant denominations when doctrine is put to a vote at every convention. Perhaps you could tell us then what abortion is? A blob? What exactly is happening? Is life being snuffed out? If so, that is happening far more often than police shootings or even black on black crime, yet there is silence…….As I said, obviously all black lives don’t matter to that group.
As for the question of crime being down…down from what? From just very high to high? Is crime down so much it is safe to walk the streets of Augusta below 15th Street and Wrightsboro Road? The streets of southwest Atlanta or west of the Georgia Dome? South Macon?
“You can pretend in these threads, all day long, that abortion equates to murder. It does not.”
What do you call a premeditated, offensive, deliberative medical procedure that ends a human life, George? Let’s see, hmmmm…manslaughter, negligent homicide…what? Dazzle us with those eloquent phrases and sentences on this one!! It’s murder, always has been, always will be, whether the co-conspirators on the Supreme Court choose to define it that way or not.
George and AG,
Crime issue is two fold in my opinion. One the Clinton crack down on enhancing the War on Drugs via three strikes, and your out, combined with drug laws have devasted poor communities. The Pew institute study shows changing this mistake would lower poverty by 30 percent. This has supporters from the Koch brothers to liberal Dems, it is time to end the War on Drugs and treat it like a health issue.
Yet the violent crime issue is a real problem. We cannot deny that we have areas that people are scared to live. While I am all for ending the War on Drugs, and working with non violent offenders, we cannot deny the issues with especially gang violence. I do think ending the War on Drugs will help, but we cannot be naive about the dangers.
“sensationalized news reports about local crime” ? I doubt families of victims consider such accounts as “sensationalized.” News reports that show disproportionate violent crime committed by blacks is reality and it’s a very sad reality that some folks don’t want to talk about. And yes, murders were up in several of our large cities including Atlanta during 2015.
By the way, I did not vote for Trumpet in the primary.
An emotional appeal is not something to base public policy on. “Do it … for the children!” You’re better than that.
I have no problem talking about “disproportionate violent crime committed by blacks …” I simply don’t stop the analysis there, which tends to make people who think the discussion can end at skin color uncomfortable. People affected by long-term unemployment — black, white and otherwise — who have untreated mental illness — black, white and otherwise — and expect unfair treatment at the hands of the justice system — black, white and otherwise — have higher crime rates. All of these things directly connect with societal racism, and the disparities in crime rates between black and white people largely disappear when they’re regressed out of the statistics.
Some folks don’t want to talk about that. As you say.
And while some cities crime rates went up last year, some fell. That’s how statistics works.
George,
If this is your point why would you support Hillary who helped create the problem?
It’s a good question, actually.
I’m on the fence between Clinton and Sanders myself, and I think the polling right now doesn’t capture the softness of support for Clinton in the black community for these very reasons. We’ve been looking at historically high turnout among black voters for eight years now, and Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot is a big part of that. Clinton may end up capturing 75 percent of a pie that’s a third smaller than in recent years.
All of that said … I think Clinton is a knife fighter of a politician who has been here before, and I think that may be what it takes to beat Trump. And beating Trump matters more to me than the policy differences between Sanders and Clinton do.
Would not a President Trump help the African American community more than Hillary?
1) Her policemen of the world foreign policy hits minority community hard as well as poor whites? Trump is clear he is not a Neocon like Hillary.
2) She has been trading off middle class jobs for years for campaign donations via her visa and trade policy? The DailyKos the most liberal website in the country pointed it out. Would not Trump be better for workers with this issue?
3) Hillary even takes money from the private prison industry that has lobbied for tougher sentences on non violent crimes and the War on Drugs. Does that not tell you all you need to know about Hillary?
The presidency, today, has almost no legislative sway. Congress will be deadlocked. Nothing will pass. So the power of the presidency is defined by enforcement of existing regulatory power and criminal law, the appointment of judges and high officials, foreign policy and the bully pulpit.
I’ll take any Clinton-appointed judge, all day long, over anyone Trump wants in his pocket. A Clinton Justice Department is likely to be a surveillance-state monster, and I hate that. But it’s also far more likely to take civil rights violations seriously than Trump, who has been sued successfully for violating the civil rights of tenants before.
As for the rest, there’s a basic political calculation to make: what do you think Trump will owe black people if he wins without them, as I suspect he would? There is no political constraint, no price to pay, for him to simply screw over black voters … because, given his base, that would likely win him more votes with working class white people with an ax to grind than it might lose him.
Governance is a coalition of interests. It sucks, of course, but that’s the reality of it. Trump’s interest is in placating the fears of the white working class, exclusively. I think Clinton is likely to be more responsive to black political interests, though plainly — given your examples — not exclusively so.
George,
My main point is the reason Trump and Sanders are surprising the establishment is simple, the pocket book. Obviously, both have attracted a fringe element. But at the end the people are betting they will at least not be tainted by the lobbyist, which will help the economy depending if their view is left or right. Agree or not with them I get the frustration. I had a very good friend of mine at dinner a few nights ago, a(former chair of a county GOP). We both said if we had to choose between Bernie and Hillary we would take Bernie because at least he is sincere about his policies. Always easier doing business with someone if you get their point of view. Yet with Hillary, obviously she seems agenda driven, and not the best interest of the people. If you replace Trump with Sanders you can say the same about the GOP….. At the end of the day, I think the people get it.
“long-term unemployment” How does long term unemployment cause folks to murder, assault and rape?
If you think a new job is around the corner, you’re far less likely to engage in the kind of anti-social behavior that will damage future employability than if you think the only way to keep a roof over your head is by knocking over a liquor store. It’s worth noting, again, that crime has fallen dramatically over the last 20-plus years. Since 1993, rape/sexual assault has fallen by half, for example.
Trumpet is an entertainer that runs as a populist.
Burnie is an old socialist running as an old socialist.
Hilly is a liar running as someone that says she always “tried” to tell the truth.
Bernie is a warm up snack and already done to Hillary, what GOP candidates are standing after Super Tuesday better get the best fire and radiation equipment there is. She is preparing her A team to launch half truth and barefaced lies of nuclear attacks on the survivors.
Stats : Atlanta gangs have gone from 58 to 120 in the last 10 years or so. I guess if you myob and the cops stay out of sight it’s all good. Unless the drive by puts a bunch of slugs in your kid or you get caught up in an initiation.
John Barrow could not even win re-election to his congressional seat, and yet folks want to draft him for the US Senate? For now, so long as Democrats are not competitive in the 40 percent of Georgia outside metro Atlanta, LOL winning a statewide office.
Georgia Democrats need a plan. period. Confused, disorganized far-far-far-left folks in/around Atlanta have set the Party back light years statewide the last decade or two. Unless some centrist moderates from around the state manage to get control (unlikely), Georgia Dems are destined to wander in the wilderness for a long time.
I see you are emphatic, Sally Forth. 😉
I see you are emphatic, Sally Forth. 😉
Hey! Charlie, what’s up with the double posts popping up on Calypso and me? Can you remove one of each please?
ummm…mine was double-posted on purpose. I was trying to show my understanding of the emphatic nature of your comment. As Foghorn Leghorn would say, “That’s a joke, I say that’s a joke, son.”
Paging all African American Dems why would you vote for Hillary? If you combine the three strikes and you are out ie War on Drugs, and the trade deals did not the Clinton family create many of the issues in your community? Why would you double down with Hillary? Your kids under the Clinton family were not only abused by the above, but were sent to fight unnecessary wars.
George, you made good on your threat to delete my posts that challenged you and hurt your poor, wittle feelings! Unbelievable! You’re a bully. Speaking of Hitler, you know he burned books to stifle expression and free speech of those with whom he disagreed? And who else took away opinions they didn’t agree with? You. Welcome to the club! I’m sure Mr. Harper is so proud of you tonight!
George and Charlie are both good people and friends on mine. We do not always agree, no need to make personal attacks, does not help make your point. On this issue, I called out George, but it was issue oriented not personal. Just my 2 cents
I hear you, Mr. Konop. But nothing is more personal than using the Hitler/Fascist label to describe a candidate AND his supporters. Just because Chidi cloaked it in his term of “Political Speech” does not make doing that legitimate or any more palatable. Thanks for your opinion on this. Reasonable as usual.
I do agree it was way over the top, which is why I made the comments. BTW, call me John…..
George and Charlie are both good people and friends of mine. We do not always agree, no need to make personal attacks, does not help make your point. On this issue, I called out George, but it was issue oriented not personal. Just my 2 cents
George,
Great post and great responses to critics.
Trump is something that people should be concerned about. His motivations and his supporters motivations are fair game.
To be honest though, I’m more scared of Cruz than Trump. I don’t think Trump really believes the B.S. he’s spewing. Cruz believes all of his. Or at least, will follow through with it.
More unpleasant statistics for BLM activities
1,856 US military have died in the 14 years in Afghanistan
2,491 US blacks murdered by blacks in 2013
189 US blacks murdered by whites in 2013
370,000 (est. 37% of 1 mil.) blacks @yr abort the undesirables
2014 data – same drift
Might be time to demonstrate against the gangs in poor neighborhoods as their numbers have doubled in Atlanta to 120 with a lot of members
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2014.xls
When a gang member shoots someone, the crime is investigated. Police make arrests, generally — 80 percent of murders result in an arrest. (We can argue about whether the police are sufficiently fastidious about who they arrest and how they arrest, but still.) The suspect is tried, found guilty or pleads guilty about 90 percent of the time and is sentenced to a very long jail term.
When a police officer shoots someone … crickets. Investigations are perfunctory. Police close ranks with prosecutors. Charges are almost never laid, and when they are, prosecutors beholden to police tank the cases, so there are no convictions.
This is why people are protesting police shootings, and not protesting gang shootings. This isn’t hard to understand.
For someone I think could make a difference in a community that is one lame answer. Better to leave the poor trembling in their homes than get in front of a gang, it might help encourage the majority good citizens from not closing ranks due to fear of retaliation.
I believe there are other reasons for BLM not messing with gangs that kill blacks.
I think you lack familiarity with the people on the front lines of either the Black Lives Matter movement or those fighting gang violence in black communities. You might find that they are generally the same people.
Strange but I have never heard anything about BLM fighting gang violence or any violence in black communities; only when police use force do they speak or act. Perhaps if BLM were a little more proactive they could prevent some of the daily violence.
The BLM is a black liberalization mob that organized around the Treyvon Martin shooting and got really going by leading the Baltimore riots. I’ve read their web site and some news articles.
I started to list a bunch of snarky inflammatory stuff but after their crashing a $500 per Hillary event last night on her selling out blacks and getting tossed out……I retired to my fishing chair with a bag of popcorn. Go for it.