Trump and Clinton Lead in 11 Alive Poll
Atlanta’s Channel 11 released a new poll of Georgia voters five days before Super Tuesday that shows Donald Trump with a substantial lead in the Republican Party primary. According to the poll, Trump is favored by 45% of likely and actual GOP primary voters, followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 8% and John Kasich at 6%. 5% are undecided. In the Democratic race, two thirds of likely and actual Democratic primary voters favor Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. Clinton gets 66% to Sanders’s 27%. 7% are undecided.
Perhaps more interesting though are the perceptions of who might win in November. While much of the conventional wisdom says that a Trump – Clinton matchup would lead to a big Republican loss, that’s not the case with this survey, which has Trump beating Clinton 50% to 41% with 9% undecided. Other head-to-head matchups include:
Trump 50%, Clinton 41%
Trump 49%, Sanders 41%
Rubio 50%, Clinton 43%
Rubio 49%, Sanders 41%
Cruz 49%, Clinton 42%
Cruz 48%, Sanders 42%
Taking a look at the crosstabs, Trump appears to do better with men than women. 50% of those who say they are strong Republicans favor Trump, while 40% of those labeling themselves strong conservatives chose Trump. Trump fares worse in Metro Atlanta than he does outside it. 57% of those with a high school education choose Trump, while only 34% of college grads pick him.
On the Democratic side, despite Bernie Sanders’s reputation of being the candidate of youth, Hillary Clinton gets 49% of the millennial vote to Sanders’s 42%. While Clinton leads Sanders slightly among white voters, 49% to 47%, she is a strong favorite among black voters, 74% to 17%, and among Hispanic voters, 71% to 19%. Clinton also leads Sanders among those considering themselves very liberal, 50% to 47%. Sanders leads Clinton among those who identify as independents 55% to 36%.
The SurveyUSA poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday. The margin of error is 3.8% for the GOP primary, 4.2% for the Democratic primary, and 2.8% for the November election questions. The margin of error will be larger for the subsets of participants in the crosstabs.
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Jon Richards
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Almost certainly accurate for Tuesday. Almost certainly inaccurate for November.
The predictive value of polling for the November election doesn’t start to gel until July … and this year, I wouldn’t assume even that much.
May I share a private, somewhat-paranoid fear about the election this year? I sense that external events will have more impact on this election than in most years. ISIS and other Islamic terrorist groups would prefer a Republican president, because any of the Republicans are more likely to send ground troops and escalate conflict than either Clinton or Sanders. Escalation is in their interest. So I can imagine an attack landing this summer or early fall, simply to move the electorate.
I think the Clinton e-mail scandal may be more serious than we’re crediting it on the left. I can only imagine the chaos if there’s an indictment pre-election. Or post-election, actually. And Reason help us if Obama has to issue a December pardon to an incoming president.
Republicans haven’t bothered with opposition research on Trump, because … well, it’s Trump. That’s been a mistake. There’s a researcher at Mother Jones who is screaming for mainstream reporters to pick up on what she’s found. Trump is far, far more vulnerable than we’ve credited him, and bluster won’t save him when there’s $150 million in political ads pushing the data. Never mind a Clinton indictment; Trump may be facing fraud charges before November.
I fear for my country.
It seems unlikely that Clinton was sending and receiving lots of classified emails with her own email account. After all, there would be a lot of other people in trouble then too- everyone on the other end of those messages. Perhaps what was happening was that secure messages were coming in, someone with clearance was summarizing them and sending them on without the clearance indicated. But HRC would likely be insulated in that case.
Be strong, George. Nothing’s changed in this country. The same old crap keeps coming down the road, only faster.
The oil glut could blow up markets throughout the summer. House gopers could renege on the budget deal. (Oh, wait, that’s already happening.) ISIS could instigate yet another sickening outrage. Hell, Turkey and Russia could go to war, and that would put everything in the pot.
But Clinton won’t get indicted and Trump won’t face fraud charges. Meanwhile, Rubio should leave some oppo for the donks.
The November prediction is just for the state of Georgia, right? I don’t think anyone is expecting Georgia to flip for a Democrat unless it’s a Democrat from Georgia. These numbers look about the same as what Romney did in 2012.