Georgia GOP Politicos Downplay Polls Showing Minimal Minority Support for Donald Trump
Today, the Washington Post goes into some depth over recent polling that shows presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump isn’t gaining traction among voters of color. The paper’s polling shows 88% of African-Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 87% of Hispanics view the candidate unfavorably. Trump is also under water with whites, although at 55% unfavorable he’s in much better shape there.
Is the polling realistic? Former Gwinnett County Republican Party Chairman Bruce LeVell, who now heads up the National Diversity Coalition for Trump doesn’t think so.
“I respectfully disagree and the reason why is, there was a tremendous amount of people of color attending the rally in Atlanta,” LeVell said, referring to a Wednesday event at which Trump criticized GOP leaders who have criticized his comments in the wake of the Orlando shooting.
LeVell, who is African American, defended Trump’s comments about Judge Gonzolo Curiel, who is presiding over a civil suit against the defunct Trump University, saying that the candidate has a right to protest if he believes that the judge is biased.
LeVell is quoted in the Post story as saying he expects Trump to earn “way above” 25% of Hispanic votes. In 2012, Mitt Romney earned around 27% of the Hispanic vote.
Leonardo Smith, who runs the minority engagement efforts for the Georgia Republican Party hasn’t been shy in his predictions for the race, telling Greg Bluestein of the AJC that Trump could easily get 20% of the black vote, which would be a high water mark of support. And, in support of LeVell’s point, at least anecdotally, Smith released this video of a young Trump supporter that was taken at Wednesday’s rally.
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The first step to fix a problem is to admit there is a problem. That’s not what Trump et al are doing. I respect Bruce and Leo–they’ve done solid work for the Georgia Republican Party–but having the same African American GOPers attend every event is not minority outreach. I understand the purpose of having them show up, but it shouldn’t be used as a rebuttal to pundits and pollsters asking “How can Trump do better with minorities?”
It seems the minority engagement program shows the same symptoms of the Trump campaign: Making wild predictions without the ability to back it up. The thought of Trump winning 20% of the African American vote is laughable. There isn’t any data to back up that prediction. It’s just more throwing spaghetti against the wall with the hope some of it sticks.
Want to fix the problem, team Trump? Admit there is a problem, don’t use a rally attendance IN ATLANTA as proof of minority support, and start a real program. Rhetoric is useless, but that’s all the Trump team has in its arsenal.
White people telling black people how to engage minorities. Funny.
Or children trying to sit at the adult table.
Low blow. CJ’s got a point. White Republicans haven’t exactly been doing a bang-up job pulling in nonwhite voters. Actually listening to what black conservatives have to say — and not telling them what to think — would be a good start. Listening to what black non-conservatives have to say would be a better start.
And as I’ve said before. Not having a racist at the top of the ticket would be helpful.
I also think the idea that Will can’t have an opinion on minority outreach because he is white is pretty absurd. How dare he propose something other than what is currently not working.
We don’t want a 75-year-old crafting an engagement plan for Millennial voters for the same reasons a man shouldn’t craft an engagement plan for women voters or a white person for black voters. Each community/group has unique perspectives. While I typically dislike playing identify politics, a certain amount is necessary. The problem within the GOP is X group doesn’t want to change Y aspect to attract Z group. For example, when I chaired the College Republicans, I pleaded with activists to quit using social issues as banner topics. It faced heavy backlash (as you could imagine). Leo’s efforts are facing the same roadblocks.
The GOP has a real moral licensing problem; it’s the “I’m not racist, I voted for Barack Obama” syndrome. They support Herman Cain and Allen West, so they’re not racist! They love Nikki Haley and Susana Martinez, so they’re not sexist! Meanwhile, the same people support Trump and his racist/misogynistic remarks.
The issue is (most) people may not be overtly racist, but there are racists undertones. It’s in the policies that harm minorities and it’s in the campaign rhetoric. For heaven’s sake, bumper stickers were sold at the GAGOP Convention calling Hillary Clinton a “b****”.
That’s why it’s important we have a minority engagement program that is run by minorities in the same way we have youth engagement programs run by young people.
Totally agree with that point.
Thanks, George. Phenomenal points there.
I went to the Trump rally to observe. Leo Smith is an extraordinary speaker. But … he’s one guy. Yes, there were nonwhite people there. I think most were strap-hangers like myself, not so much supporting as wondering about the spectacle of it. And let’s not kid: fewer than one in 20 in that room were black, Latino or Asian. Trump won’t crack double digits in the black community.
The Republican Party has to reject its racists to win nonwhite voters. Period. Silence isn’t enough. It has to be public, and it has to be treated like a priority. Black people are not going to be in the same tent with people who actively hate them and wish them political harm.
I’ve said this, repeatedly, for years.
As long as it remains uncomfortable to the point of physical distress for conservatives to even admit that racism is a real thing with real legal and economic consequences for nonwhite voters, that kind of repudiation won’t happen … because the party is afraid of alienating the 20 percent or so of its voters who are affirmatively racist.
Before this year, voters of all stripes could still pretend that the number of racists the party relies upon for electoral viability was relatively small, if significant. We know that’s not true now. While a majority of Republicans aren’t out-and-out racists, a voting majority of Republicans are perfectly willing to support one.
It really doesn’t matter what happens at the convention at this point. If he’s nominated, the party has said that it prefers David Duke to David Scott. If it chucks Trump somehow, the Republican base that gave him a majority of its votes will erupt in a display that will make 1968 look tame, free of the last vestige of constraint because electability will no longer be a consideration.
You need a new party. This one is broken. Whatever passes for the Trump coalition will never, never win a national election again.
George,
We have been friends for awhile, and you know I like you, and respect your opinion. You have always been a very honest, as well as strong voice in your community, no matter race, religion….. I want to focus strictly on your knowledge in the African American community. Please help me understand the blind loyalty to Hillary Clinton? You know the polices of War on Drugs/94 crime Bill Clinton legislation, Neocon war Policy, private prison support …… has especially hurt poor white and minority communities.
http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/
Do you know how absolutely offensive it is to hear that your voting decisions are “blind loyalty”? As if you do not have the mental capacity to do the research and come to a decision to vote for someone. Obviously, minorities arent educated enough to make decisions on flawed candidates right?
I gotta tell you guys. Statements like this are what do NOT help the GOP with minority outreach.
Post the civil rights movement, can you name a more targeted racist legislation than the Nixon War on Drugs/Clinton 94 Crime bill? BTW Salon and Nation asked similar questions about the racist behavior of Bill and Hillary, they are from the left?
……..Racist then, racist now: The real story of Bill Clinton’s crime bill
Clinton’s crime bill and Hillary’s “super-predators” talk remains a problem, but its roots and legacy are complex…..
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/16/racist_then_racist_now_the_real_story_of_bill_clintons_crime_bill/
Annnd you heard exactly ZERO of what I said.
Everyone else, this exchange is why minority outreach will continue to be an elusive unicorn for the GOP.
John, you don’t bring minority voters into the party by telling them how bad the people they are voting for now are, which is effectively insulting their intelligence. A better way, as George indicated, is to talk to them and find out their concerns, then explain how you can help them.
Jon,
I think it comes down to policy. If the GOP promoted polices that would help people the voters will show up. Koch brothers get it!
Using tokens to make a token effort is not going to be very effective either. And I don’t mean that as an offense to any minorities already involved in the party. Looking at Lori Geary’s photo of the recent outreach luncheon during the convention is like playing Where’s Waldo and I don’t even see double digits in attendance. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkC10voVEAA4nUF.jpg:large
Until the mindset of the leadership and/or the so called base is changed, nothing else will. As the other Will has pointed out, get the H E double hockey sticks out of the social issues. You can’t pass resolutions clamoring for smaller government while at the same time wanting to add useless, redundant code. You can’t mouth the sentiments of local control while attempting to pass legislation that wrests it away to the state. You can’t state you are for racial equality when you are wanting a thinly veiled state supported effort back to separate but unequal schools. You can’t even pass muster with a MAJORITY of the the women in the state allowing someone at your convention to pass around the Hillary KFC bumper stickers. You can’t speak out of both sides of your mouth and claim outreach while simultaneously being offensive with actions.
John. Setting aside your choice of language about “blind loyalty,” I think I can answer you.
It’s not blind loyalty. It’s a wide-eyed appreciation of the alternative.
Here are the main political problems facing African-American voters. Black people are discriminated against in the job market, at school, in the courts, in housing and in small business lending decisions. The unemployment rate for black Americans is twice as high as whites, and that’s true even for people who have education and skills, leaving black families with a poverty rate twice as high as whites. Black students face harsher discipline than white students for the same infractions, are more likely to face arrest for the same crimes, and face longer sentences — all of which make black people more likely to be poor.
Red-lining still happens. Lenders generally refuse small business loans to black applicants unless forced by the threat of law. Property values in black communities do not rise, largely because white people generally refuse to live in black neighborhoods, shrinking the available sales market to people with less income to devote to a mortgage. Neighborhood schools with mixed incomes and racial integration tend to produce better schools for all concerned, which increases property values. White flight thus creates a self-fulfilling prophecy for black communities. The result? Net wealth for white households is around $120,000 because of housing appreciation. Net wealth for black households is about $5,000.
Republicans campaign as though these issues are a feature, not a bug.
“Local control” can be a good thing, but often means exclusionary zoning to prevent too many poor (read: black) families from invading white neighborhoods. “School choice” and vouchers means being able to get white kids out of black schools. Affirmative action is attacked as undemocratic. Antidiscrimination legislation is attacked as bad for small businesses. Bias in law enforcement and courts is dismissed as “coddling criminals.” On and on.
The choice, for black voters, is between Clinton’s half a loaf … and Republicans with no loaf at all.
It’s not about blind loyalty. Do Republicans truly not understand how damaging their political platform is to black people who simply want to have stable families, advance their careers and build wealth? Everything I just described is a real problem. At best, Republican policy recommendations ignore these problems. At worst, they make these problems worse.
States rights and the argument that it was unconstitutional to compel white businesses to serve African-Americans was front and center when the modern Republican Party came into being into being in 1964. It wasn’t co-incidence that the Great Communicator Ronald Reagan expressed support for states rights in Neshoba County MS when running for President in 1980.
Keep it fresh, GOP, by continuing to recycle states rights and constitutionality arguments to support legislation harmful to minorities, whether the minorities are African-American or not.
Note that nothing I just wrote has one damned thing to do with entitlements, or welfare, or Medicaid. As a practical matter, the diminishment of government handouts isn’t relevant to black voters. Do you know why? Poor black people don’t vote. Those making less than $15,000 a year made up 13 percent of the population in 2008 … but just 6 percent of voters. Roughly a third of that 6 percent is black. Two percent of the electorate overall. One seventh of the black electorate.
Black voters understand this. But the screaming about welfare still looks like a taunt. It’s a message aimed at racist white voters who view the primary purpose of government policy as the real or perceived punishment of black people. “Lots of black people are poor, right? So, vote for me, and I’ll hurt poor people … to get at them.” Given the context of southern conservative messaging, it’s a reasonable conclusion to draw. But Republicans seem to think that they don’t need to address the implied racism of this position — that seeing racism here is the fault of the listener, and why stoop to defend it? So no effort, at all, at all, comes from the Republican Party to address how that looks, which black voters take to mean it’s a deliberate part of the message.
And that’s enough reason for the rest of the black electorate to hear that and say screw those guys.
Everything George said. EVERYTHING!
George,
………unemployment rate for black Americans is twice as high as whites, and that’s true even for people who have education and skills, leaving black families with a poverty rate twice as high as whites……..
According to the Pew institute the number one reason is the combination of the Nixon War on Drugs and Clinton 94 Crime Bill, which was unfairly enforced in poor white and minority areas. Pew estimates if we ended the above the poverty rate would drop 30 percent. Hillary Clinton has taken close to a billion dollars from the private prison industry.
……….racist white voters who view the primary purpose of government policy as the real or perceived punishment of black people. “Lots of black people are poor, right? So, vote for me, and I’ll hurt poor people …….
I agree that the GOP also has to many fear based leaders like Sen McKoon that promote hatred over solving anything. I also think, think the Dems have many on their side playing the same game ie Hillary. Almost a billion dollars from the private prison industry after knowing all the issues with the 94 Crime bill? Black voters could of supported Bernie? That is why I used the word “blind loyalty”, give me the logic of voting for Hillary over Bernie if you are a liberal African American?
It’s like you are purposefully and actively trying NOT to listen to what minorities are telling you. You have such a hate/dislike for Hillary that you cant focus otherwise. It’s downright comical at this point.
There is no reason to listen when you know everything. Duh.
Sorry – this child has earned his seat. Considering you’re not even using your actual name – I don’t think you have.
Thanks. This one sentence explains everything that is wrong with millennials and the me generation. I’m sure you have earned everything you have. Unfortunately for me, some would consider me a millennial.
I also don’t have anything to prove to you. I know what I do daily.
Earned? At 13? Producing rambling youtube videos? LOL. I’m picturing a 13-year old singing Louis Armstrong’s dirge, “Nobody knows the trouble I’ve seen…”
Mr. Durant, I’m self confident enough with my accomplishments that I feel no need to entertain your petty belittlement.
OK, CJ, school us, puleeeese! Tell the White Men how to get black votes!
CJ, you’re right. That’s why I’m not leading minority engagement. But sure, admitting there’s a problem and improving PR tactics are silly suggestions from a white man.
The first thing that needs to be done with regards to minority outreach is to not have a bigot as our nominee.
That’s an effective measure, too.
Rhetoric is sword waving and wall building. He qualifies. Hypocrisy is promises with a lot of other people’s money, favoritism for foundation donations and hating on the wealthy while keeping the part time starting salary for your daughter under $1 million.
We will get through this, either way. I’d be nervous on what we don’t want to see coming, the flawed acturian programs for public pensions, student loans and other financial impacts (we got past the mortgage derivatives) and a wealth transfer from inverted interest rates and an underperforming economy. Venezuelans are working through their promises……..
The author of this post, Jon Richards and I spoke after its posting and he acknowledged that the video I released of a Teen Republican had absolutely nothing to do with my early estimation of Trump’s chances with racial minority voters. That video isn’t proof of anything except I don’t know how to take Selfies. Greg Bluestein’s article separately referenced and published over a month ago in the AJC speaks for itself.
Engagement events are so varied and statewide that I’d be wrong to say that I’ve attended them all. Georgia is a big state. I can also understand how one could miss the point of targeted engagement if they are not the target. Sort of like how I don’t always get sun tanning. (lol) I’d be happy to sit down for a detailed interview on minority engagement strategy and associated metrics for any professional journalist interested. Until then, please join me on GPC’s Political Rewind this Wednesday on 88.5 and as I speak in Houston County on July 9th. Enjoy the poll watching! – Leo Smith (I don’t follow posts. If you’d like to contact me, please e-mail [email protected]. You can also keep up with our work at http://www.voterengagement.org.)
Trump could “easily” get 20% of the black vote? Yep,, and the Braves could “easily” win their division this year? The last time any GOP nominee broke that figure was Richard Nixon in 1960 (33%)—and of course back then, the black electorate was a lot smaller (in part because of voting restrictions in the South).
Been a pretty bad month so far for Trump…no wonder a “regime change” was in order with a new campaign manager yesterday. Trump has yet to catch on that the primary season is over, that he will need far more votes in November than he won in the 4 or so month primary campaign season. He needs some “Come to Jesus” does of political reality when it comes to his unrealistic 50-state strategy—contrary to what he suggests, he is not going to compete realistically to win California (which Romney lost by 3 million votes last time) or New York state (where Romney lost by 2 million four years ago). Every day he spends campaigning in either of those is a day wasted in the two states that matter most for the GOP, Florida and Ohio. He does not seem to realize how narrow the path is for a GOP victory in November, given that win or lose, every Democratic presidential nominee in the last 6 presidential elections has surpassed 250 electoral votes. Nixon in 1960 made it a plan to visit all 50 states, even states he was assured of winning like the Great Plains ones—did not work out so well.
Yeah, but NY is a state where Trump can most easily funnel campaign spending back into his own businesses.
Campaigning to win? Note the Trump campaign has spent more on hats than on voter data.