July 14, 2016 10:36 AM
Home2016 ElectionsNew Poll Has Georgia “Leaning Clinton”

New Poll Has Georgia “Leaning Clinton”

By  2016 Elections, Presidential Politics  13 Comments

On the eve of the Republican National Convention, an extensive state-by-state poll by Morning Consult shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would win the presidency with an electoral college vote of 320-212. Morning Consult polled 57,000 voters in its survey, which took place between April and June.

With this scenario, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win handily. Picture courtesy of Morning Consult.
With this scenario, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win handily. Picture courtesy of Morning Consult.

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Of course, this poll did not consider the revelation that Hillary Clinton would not be indicted for operating a private mail server while Secretary of State, nor does it consider what might happen at the parties national conventions later this month. The other major factor that could affect Georgia’s vote would be naming favorite son Newt Gingrich as Trump’s Vice Presidential pick.

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Jon Richards

13 Comments
  1. John Konop

    This poll is very strange, since most polls show Clinton lead shrinking nationally? Some even show Trump ahead nationally?

    ………..Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has withered to 3 percentage points, signaling their battle for the White House has become too close to call heading into the two major-party national conventions, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll……….

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton%E2%80%99s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-dramatically/ar-BBuh5ro

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-latest-national-poll/story?id=40571216

  2. chamblee54

    If Hillary wins Georgia, she will win the election.

    • Baker

      Ha. You don’t say. If Georgia is really even close, she’s going to roll.

  3. Bart

    No he hasn’t lived in GA for quite a while. But he was born in PA, lived in and represented GA for years then moved to VA. 3 ‘tossup’ states Newt can claim as home…

  4. John Konop

    It is all about trade policy…………

  5. Jon Richards

    I think you can still make that argument. Obviously, he used to represent the old 6th district, and was a college instructor here. In 2012, Gingrich got 47.2% of the vote in the Georgia presidential preference primary.

  6. augusta52

    Doesn’t make sense in some states—Georgia, which Obama lost by over 300,000 votes last time, is rated “Lean Clinton”. while North Carolina, where he lost by less than one-third that last time (92,000 votes) and where the incumbent GOP governor is vulnerable this year, is rated Trump? And can 16 percent of Georgia voters really be undecided at this point? And Maine, which hasn’t voted R for president since 1988, leans Trump? I agree though that Virginia is in the Democratic camp (the state has been trending that way since the previous decade), and probably more likely that Pennsylvania leans Clinton than is a toss-up, given only once in the last 6 elections (2004) has a Republican even come within 150,000 votes of winning there, and that the Philadelphia area is strongly Democratic.

  7. Davo65

    Election Update: When To Freak Out About Shocking New Polls
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

  8. rickday

    CONSERVATIVES OUTRAGED!

    That is all I got. Sorry.

  9. augusta52

    I don’t think Clinton will win Georgia—the rural vote in the state will go strongly for Trump—but if she did, it would not really matter in terms of her winning—I agree with Andrew, it would be part of a larger rout. I mean, if she wins Georgia, certainly she also is winning in the pecking order states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It would be icing on the cake for her. Where a Clinton win would matter is future statewide contests in Georgia, like the 2018 race for governor, so far for which the focus has mainly been on which Republican candidates will announce for that post, and the subsequent ripple effect.

  10. John Konop

    Obviously Sen Dems are not buying the poll Jon posted!

    ………Nervous Senate Democrats raised concerns with Hillary Clinton during a private meeting in the Capitol Thursday over a recent poll showing Donald Trump leading or tied in several battleground states.

    “Some people were freaked out, they were looking down at the polls on Real Clear Politics and asking why it was so close,” said a Democratic senator who attended the meeting, referring to a website lawmakers were checking out on their personal devices……….

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/287845-democrats-freaked-out-about-polls-in-meeting-with-clinton

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