In One Analysis, Georgia Has Become a Blue State
If you have been waiting for Georgia to turn blue, you have your wish:
That’s the latest map from the political prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight. It gives Hillary a 50.2% chance of winning the Peach State to Donald Trump’s 49.8%.
Of course, there are disclaimers. This is their Now-cast view, which assumes that the election is being held today. If you’ve been paying attention to the political headlines, you know this hasn’t been a good week for Trump. The polls Plus view, which uses the information in the Now-cast but extrapolates opinions and historical trends to November says Trump has a 75% chance of winning the state’s voters in November.
Still, it’s a sign. Recent polling has had the presidential race in Georgia at a toss-up, within the margin of error. We understand the AJC will release new polling soon, possibly this weekend. If their results show Trump and Hillary Clinton tied, or Clinton ahead, it would tend to validate the FiveThirtyEight view.
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Jon Richards
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On the day that Rep David Scott, former Governor Barnes, and Former Senator Nunn all come out for Johnny Isakson, 538 says Hillary is even money in Georgia.
Not sure if Trump loses Georgia, but I will predict there’s gonna be a historical level of ticket splitting.
I agree with your split ticket scenario and yet I don’t see any pitchforks being wielded towards Scott, Barnes, or Nunn. And Jim Barksdale isn’t even a misogynistic sociopath.
If only the Republicans (save the ones leaving Congress or running HP) had the same level of backbone, it might even force Narcissus to just sit there by those water banks and let this election pass him by.
Arizona too. Maybe McCain should give Isakson a call.
AJC: Clinton 44, Trump 40.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/
Digging deeper, x-tabs are a little wonky —
Respondent composition was 33.6% D, 30.9% R, 35.5% I. Seems a little D-heavy?
I noticed the same thing–a lot more Independents than I expected.
Also, I wish they’d separated out Hispanics and Asian-Americans in the crosstabs rather than just show black/white.
The high-I and low-R numbers could have a common explanation: the so-called “embarrassed voter” effect.
I would like to believe this. However, the polls said the Senate and Governor’s race was close in 2014. On election day, it was a Republican rout.
Top two headlines on google news at the moment:
“Clinton acknowledges misspeaking about FBI director’s testimony”
“Donald Trump says he didn’t see video of cash being transferred for ransom after all”
Both candidates are each running against the only other candidate that they could possibly have a chance to beat.