Trump, Clinton Tied in Poll of Georgia Likely Voters
A poll of 730 likely Georgia voters for Fox 5 Atlanta shows the top of the presidential race is tied. Democrat Hillary Clinton would have 42.8% of the vote if it were held today, Republican Donald Trump would have 43.0%, Libertarian Gary Johnson would have 10.8%, while 3.4% are undecided. 46.8% of those polled believe it’s likely that the election results could be rigged such that the top vote getter would not be declared the winner. 37.3% said that a rigged election was unlikely and 16% were unsure
Declaring Georgia a battleground state, Fox 5 analyst Matt Towery of OpinionSavvy, which conducted the poll, said:
It is pretty clear that both candidates will have to take to the paid airwaves to win Georgia. For the first time in decades the state is up for grabs. But with one caveat. We have seen a pattern in recent elections in which Democratic statewide candidates have appeared to be posing a serious challenge, only to see their support melt in the final weeks. But much of that “melting” was the result of aggressive and smart last minute GOP ads. This is something which Mr. Trump will have to come to understand if he is to win either Georgia or Florida. A loss in either would end any chance he might have to be elected president.
Crosstabs are available here. The poll was conducted Wednesday evening, and has a margin of error of 3.6%.
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Jon Richards
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I imagine a lot of those libertarian votes will evaporate in the polling place.
In the 10 or so states that were battlegrounds in 08 and 12, I would very much expect Trump to underperform his polls (and Clinton to overperform hers) for just that reason. So in NH, PA, OH, WI, IA, VA, NC, FL, CO, and NV, yeah. In Georgia, where neither side has really invested much in GOTV, I wouldn’t expect that much from GOTV. Bigger thing is that sometimes Dems will tie at 43-43 or 45-45 in August/September, but 45-46 is a ceiling for the Democratic vote, so eventually the GOP pulls ahead as shy white voters go back to the default party. But if Trump is so radioactive that the 10-15% that are saying undecided or 3rd party stay home, then you could get a Dem victory. But in a world where you see things like Jonathan Martin at the NYT reporting that every GOP internal has Trump down 10+ in North Carolina because he’s radioactive in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh, then strange things may start happening in Metro Atlanta.
One has to question a for profit news station putting out the statement quoted above relative to their desire for political ad buys. “It is pretty clear that both candidates will have to take to the paid airwaves to win Georgia.” It’s clear because Matt Towery conducted an August poll for a November election that has yet to see the candidates face off in a debate?? Nice try.
Georgia is red, will be red in November by at least 8% if not more. Ask Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn who both thought via polling they had a shot 2 years ago in statewide races. Both lost by at least 8% despite a poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage 2 weeks before the election showing Nunn with a lead, Deal / Carter tied (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/GA_InsiderAdvantage_102314.pdf) That poll was meaningless in October, why would one conducted in August be considered even slightly relevant by campaigns considering where to spend their ad dollars?
It’s just as possible that Trump will fall victim to the Nunn/Carter syndrome- people may superficially like them, but when it comes time to push the button they just can’t do it.
Not when the alternative is Hillary. More likely that many Trump voters aren’t being polled, thus the reason I believe it will be a fairly easy win here in GA.
Poll based on ‘likely voters’ which is not defined in the crosstabs. Does this mean voters who have participated in X number of past elections? If so, there are many new voters who are going to the polls for the first time in a while if ever to vote for Trump based on primary results.
Additionally minority votes will be down in this election compared with 2008 and 2012 since neither candidate is a minority. This poll indicates a 30% inclusion of blacks which I believe to be high.
Lastly I don’t think IA has a great predictive track record so if their poll shows a tie, you can generally assume the GOP candidate is going to do much better.
I stand by my margin of 8% + in Trump’s favor.
The pollster will ask a series of questions during the poll that will determine who is a “likely” voter. Past voting history as well has their enthusiasm to go and vote this election determines whether they are a likely voter.
For example. “How excited are you to vote for your preferred candidate this year?
A) Somewhat excited
B) Extremely excited
or “How likely are you to vote in November”
A) Very Likely
B) Somewhat Likely
Also, Matt Towery has had a pretty go record with his polling.
Likely voters are determined by the first poll question. how likely are you to vote in the November election. 97.2% say they are definitely going to vote. Presumably newly registered voters and voters who only vote in presidential elections are included.
While African-American turnout was undoubtedly higher than normal in 2008 and to a lesser extent 2012 due to President Obama being on the ticket, for this election you have a combination of a growing number of minority voters compared to the shrinking white percentage, along with minorities being incentivized to vote based on their impressions of Trump’s white nationalism.
in Georgia’s 2014 general election, 29.7% of the voters were black. The actual percentage is likely higher due to the growing number of people who don’t identify their race on the registration form, so would be counted as “other.” Given minority turnout is lower in off-year elections, I would say a 30% black turnout is too conservative.
Thanks for the clarification on the poll Eiger and Jon. Even so, I will stand by my prediction of a 8%+ victory for Trump in GA and a decline in minority voting compared w/’08 & ’12. If Hillary and her team haven’t been able to put him away at this stage, they missed one hell of an opportunity. Now that the Trump campaign team is on point, look for his positives to trending upward. Just my opinion.
Trump will win Georgia, but not by 8%. I’ll say 4 points and we will have to waste money here on TV. Money that we should spend in real battle ground states.
I mean, Obama lost the state by 5 points in ’08 and a little less than 8 points in ’12. No way Clinton’s losing the state by more than that. If there were no polling of the state, just going by uniform national lead of C+7/8 you see in regular polling + demographics changes in the state since ’08, I’d have her losing GA by 4-5 points, The idea that Trump has room to win the state by more than Romney doesn’t pass the smell test, even before you consider that he alienates a big chunk of the GOP vote in Georgia (suburban, college-educated women). There aren’t many more Bubbas he can win that Bush, McCain, and Romney didn’t, but there are plenty of Office Park Joes and Janes he can lose.
Almost half think the election is rigged?!
That’s the most disturbing finding for me.
Remember, many Republicans and their establishment on election day 2012 thought Romney would win.
The GOP establishment not rebuking Trump for saying “The only way we can lose, in my opinion — I really mean this, Pennsylvania — is if cheating goes on” evidences an utter lack of leadership and self-serving capitulation to the ignorant base it has cultivated for years.
Brietbart’s Bannon working for the Trump campaign is a perfect choice to cultivate sought-after conspiracy theorist s voters.
I want to argue with you on this so bad, but unfortunately I have nothing to say other than you are correct.
My party is being burned to the ground and some of the people that could possibly stop it are just watching it burn from the sidelines.
Just glanced through the crosstabs and noted this about their sample:
age white/a-a
18-29 71/22
30-44 46/46
45-64 71/26
65+ 79/18
As a question to anyone who might know, are those reasonable numbers, esp the 30-44 group?
Also, those Trump people who think polls are meaningful should note the poll has white LVs going to Trump by 37 points compared to Romney’s 60 point edge in 2012. Might want to see about getting those folks back on board.
It would be interesting to see presidential polling in various legislative and congressional districts across Georgia, say for instance Tom Price’s 6th CD on the northside of metro Atlanta, which is probably the most moderate of the 10-GOP held congressional districts in the state, or in areas like Cobb and Gwinnett. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility that Gwinnett could back Clinton, given the rapidly changing demographics and the Libertarian factor. If for instance we were to see polling that has Clinton trailing Trump in Price’s district by single digits, as opposed to the typical 20+ point GOP margin there, that would provide further proof of a close contest here.
The idea that Trump would win Georgia by a bigger percentage than Romney did four years ago seems like a big leap of faith…
“It is pretty clear that both candidates will have to take to the paid airwaves to win Georgia. ”
This is one time there are benefits to being an orphan county and stuck in the Greenville media market.
By the end of September every other commercial is a political ad. In 2012, my late father took a count of calls (robo and live people) from the Friday to the Monday before the election at their home in Wisconsin. 19 Romney, 12 Obama, another 20+ for the Senate race and 6 for the House – all in 96 hours.
Yeah, I was living in DC during 2012, and especially during shows like Jeopardy, every ad was some kind of campaign one. Living next to Virginia, you got a ton of them for the Presidential Race or the Senate Race. Except what’s funny is that even as the billion dollar campaigns and Kochs and SuperPACs were splashing cash to try and win Virginia, like 50% of the ads on TV were for or against a casino gambling referendum in Maryland: The battle between the developers that wanted to build them in Baltimore vs the West Virginia ones worried about competition. Turns out, casinos have a LOT of money.
I dont know where you’ve been, but Clinton has been on air for over a month now, and I see people on the ground canvassing all over the place.
This isnt a mid-term election people…so you really cant compare this to a one. Turn out is much higher in Presidential years. Trump is not only radioactive to democrats but also moderate republicans. They will vote Clinton or just stay home. I’d say the senate race will be closer than anyone ever thought it would be as well. People dont split ticket vote like they used to. Also, Burr in NC is going to lose because of Trump.