AP Rates GA Lean Republican, Gives Grim Outlook for Trump
Georgia continues to be in play for Hillary Clinton according to the Associated Press.
The wire service updated its forecast for the presidential race and Trump remains on course to be slaughtered.
AZ, MO, UT(!) and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District are the other leans republican parts of the country.
For Donald Trump, the electoral map is as daunting as it is friendly to Clinton. To win, he must sweep all of the toss-up battlegrounds and go on to pick off at least one state where the Democratic nominee now has a solid lead.
That’s according to an Associated Press analysis of the map as it stands today, with 78 days until Election Day.
The analysis considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.
It finds that to capture the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, Clinton must merely defend traditionally Democratic states and those where recent polls show she has large advantages, and then add just one of the states that The Associated Press now rates as a toss-up.
Trump supporters will assuredly still continue the greatest act of partisan delusion in a generation by insisting that not only is all data wrong, the degree to which they believe it is wrong is so great all of polling science would be upended.
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You forgot to mention the election is rigged.
Says who??
Yo momma! (Who is a lovely lady).
” Polls. Lots of them… All of them…?”
As a delusional partisan I will just remind everyone it is AUGUST. Do people really have nothing better to do than waste time with meaningless prognostications like this from the AP? Check back around the first of October after a couple of debates to get a grip.
Yeah, because these are two candidates no one has heard of, lots of potential movement.
1. They are not prognostications, they are snapshots of current conditions.
2. Your candidate cleaned out his top staff because he doesn’t watch the polls?
At what point will you start believing the polls? November?
Of course these polls are just snap shots of where we are right now, but they also show how much work needs to be done to win. Trump obviously has a ways to go to be able to win. You can’t argue that point.
You probably could not get both Clinton’s and Trump’s campaigns to agree on any states that are “off limits” for the other campaign. Clinton would never admit that she can’t win Wyoming (which hasn’t voted Democratic for president since the 1964 LBJ election, or Alaska (ditto) or Texas (which hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in 40 years). So here is a partial list for starters (just a few states) that most objective analysts should agree on:
Clinton has no chance in: Alaska, Idaho, Texas, Wyoming, Kansas and Nebraska
Trump has no chance in California (Obama won there by 3 million votes last time), Illinois (Democratic for president each time since 1992), Maryland. Massachusetts, New York (which Obama won by 2 million last time) and Rhode Island.
In 1976, the close Ford-Carter presidential election, 20 states were decided by 5 percentage points or less; but only about a dozen were in 2004 (Kerry/Bush) and just 4 states last time decided by that margin—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Probably pretty good odds that Virginia will not be in that category this time.