Georgia Senate Rating Moved To “Safe Republican”
Larry Sabato has looked into his crystal ball and determined that Senator Johnny Isakson’s race should be rated as “safe Republican” – the highest ranking in Sabato’s arsenal indicating that Isakson is likely to return to Washington. From his post-debate email this morning:
In Georgia, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) always looked more secure than McCain, but there was at least some evidence that the incumbent could potentially find himself in a competitive race. But Isakson’s wide lead in the polls points to a comfortable win in November, so we’re shifting the Peach State’s Senate race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
As for control of the entire Senate, the path has grown narrower for the Democrats will wrangle control from Republicans:
Democrats now have an even narrower path to taking back the Senate. With Wisconsin and Illinois likely to elect Democrats to the Senate instead of the incumbent Republicans, Democrats need three of four of the Crystal Ball’s current Toss-ups (Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania) to win an outright majority (or two of them and the vice presidency). Uphill battles in Leans Republican states such as Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina could also provide opportunities, but they remain harder targets (of the three, Florida is moving closer to Likely Republican, while Missouri and North Carolina seem to be getting more competitive).
A reminder: A Senate of 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats would be controlled by the party in the White House. Republicans probably want to double down on making sure they have 51 Senators come January.
About Author
Charlie
Founder of GeorgiaPol.com; Now weekly columnist Very interested in Georgia and Georginas. Interest in politics is waning daily.
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You know what probably moved the needle on this race? The awesome TV spot about how Johnny is going to fight for the rights of victims of the Iranian hostage crisis.
Sure this race has been over since viable Georgia Democrats decided to sit this one out but that ad is terrible and needs to be derided as much as possible.
I’m going to make a few assumptions so don’t get angry if I’m a little off. I’m also not trying to be mean. Just explaining the ad.
I am assuming that you are a white man over the age of 40. This ad isn’t for you. This ad, much like the other Isakson ad that talks about the young woman murder while serving in the peace core, is directed at women between the ages of 18-44. This is the demographic that Trump is hurting republicans the most so Johnny’s team would obviously want to boost his numbers with that demographic.
White men over the age of 40 are going to turnout and vote. Johnny will still do well with the demographic. Educated white women between 18-44 will probably go for Hillary here in Georgia. This is a demographic that is traditionally republican. It would make sense for Johnny to target that demographic and not you.
Not angry at all with the assumption, white male, 32 (or -5 when the crisis happened). I’m not an ad man, but if I’m targeting educated white women in the 18-44 demo, then just run an ad with him and his wife of x’s years playing with their grandchildren and getting on a plane back from DC to make it in time for their baseball game/dance recital.
Johnny’s best appeal is that he’s affable and has the thoughtful grandpa type thing going for him. Those women will probably vote for Hillary, but they’ll split ticket for the caring old man. (supporting maternity leave-policies might be a good angle)
Running against Obama (who also appeals to some of those women) and harking back to a hostage crisis from 1979 that affected NONE of them (at best your 44 yr old woman was 7 yrs old during the crisis, she probably didn’t remember it) just seems like its dead air.
“I’m not an ad man, but if I’m targeting educated white women in the 18-44 demo, then just run an ad with him and his wife of x’s years playing with their grandchildren and getting on a plane back from DC to make it in time for their baseball game/dance recital.” We have already had two different ads. I’m sure there will be more. But you are right that an ad showing him as a grandfather figure would help with that demo. I would assume something like that is coming. The two ads so far are painting a picture of Johnny as caring, but at the same time willing and able to stand and fight for those who have been wronged.
Being an educated white woman,I will weigh in here. Cutesy ads with the grandchildren don’t cut it. Talk policies, plans, accomplishments. The future of healthcare because voting down the ACA over and over simply makes you look foolish. Maternal leave. Child care support.
Real dollar issues of interest to women. Put those in your ads.
I’m a quasi-educated white man and I agree that women (and men) want more than grandchildren ads.
Not that I think it matters. Isakson thumps Barksdale.
“Not that I think it matters. Isakson thumps Barksdale.” That’s where I’m coming from on these points.
I agree with CoastalCat that in normal circumstances, ads talking about your policies and what you intend to do for all demographics is preferred. But since this race is sort of sewn up, just don’t throw any firebombs (running AGAINST Obama, for instance, in a demo that probably likes him) and stick to the soft, boring stuff.
Part of the problem this year is turning people out to vote. Not necessarily persuading them to vote for you. If that makes sense. You have to give them a reason to get up and go vote for you. Not just convince them you are a good person by working to improve your image with a certain demographic. That why these ads focus on what Johnny has done and why he is deserving of your vote.
The boring stuff you talk about isn’t enough to get someone out of their house to go vote. It simply builds upon the image of the candidate. The current ads are trying to get you out of your house and to the polls.
I’m an educated white woman in that demographic and I agree with CoastalCat above. I want to hear about proposed policies on pocketbook issues. I don’t care about Grandchildren commercials. I don’t want to hear negative commercials about other politicians. I’m tired of repeal votes on the ACA and other partisan plays. Not that Isakson seems to have anything to worry about since he will likely remain GA’s senator for another 6 years.
the ad confused me. i think it made him look a little dated, actually.
bu there is another possibility he made that kind of ad, and it has nothing to do with marketing.
maybe it’s just something he was proud of doing,
The fact that Democrats have put up a sacrificial lamb against Isakson reminds me of an old Chuck Bullock line (from longtime professor at the University of Georgia). It goes something like this: “When a novice runs against an entrenched incumbent, it usually means more seasoned politicians saw it as an unwinnable race.” Think like the hapless Republicans running in the heavily 4th and 5th Districts (held by Hank Johnson and John Lewis respectively). Isakson will trounce him in rural Georgia and doubtless run better than the norm (for a Republican) in heavily Democratic DeKalb and Fulton Counties and even in slowly Democratic trending Cobb County. And Barksdale’s anti-trade theme is reminiscent of what politicians in both parties have tried before, like Democrat Dick Gephardt (who ran for the presidential nomination in 1988) and Pat Buchanan (who sought the GOP nomination in 1992 and 1996). Their nationalistic themes fell flat in a region with growing foreign investment.
Barksdale is not a sacrificial lamb. The D’s don’t want to have anything to do with him for the same exact reason they didn’t Bernie. He wants the globalists to make sure that when the big pies are carved, there is something for the average citizen, and not the Elite Family of Fifty.
Speaking from the inside, the Blue Dogs are as afraid of Barksdale as they are of the Sandernistas, and generally look down their rich liberal noses (think Kassim Reed) at genuine progressives like Barksdale. That is why they won’t support him. I get email from all the campaigns, except Stein. The Blue Dogs NEVER mention Barksdale, except when they occasionally speak the importance of down line races.
Johnny will win because he is a war whore, and his house of repute is in Marietta. As long as Marietta Martin decides they need HUMAN worker drones to make their death machines, we will have Good Ol’e Gramps to ogle over.
“Genuine progressives like Barksdale.” You mean, genuine liberals? You know, a senator who will vote like Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer? In days of old, Georgia Democrats running statewide usually would try to distance themselves from the very liberal national party. Occasionally Georgia elects liberals to office, like Wyche Fowler in 1986 or Max Cleland a decade later—but then they were turned out of office when Georgians realized they really were not that different from the Ted Kennedys, Joe Bidens and Mario Cuomos of the world—in other words, pleasing the liberal leadership of their party was more important to them. And they paid the price for that at re-election time.
“Very liberal national party” compared to what?