SurveyMonkey Poll Has Clinton, Isakson Leading in Georgia
A poll of battleground states by the Washington Post released today has Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by 3 points in a two way race, or four points in a race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Clinton’s lead in Peach State polling is the first since early August, shortly after the party conventions.
In the two race, Clinton gets 48%, Trump gets 45% and 7% are undecided. In the race that includes third party candidates, Clinton gets 45%, Trump 41%, Johnson receives 9%, Stein 2%, and 3% are undecided.
In the Senate race, Republican Johnny Isakson is at 50%, while Democrat Jim Barksdale is at 46%. Allen Buckley, the Libertarian was not included in the survey.
While no crosstabs were provided, the Post story says that Trump leads among white college graduates in Georgia. He also leads among white women. Overall, Trump holds a more than 30 point advantage among whites, while Clinton leads by 70 among nonwhites.
It should be noted that the SurveyMonkey poll is not a true random sample, and as such there is no margin of error calculated. For more information on the poll’s methodology click here.
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Jon Richards
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Interesting to see Johnson at 9%. The recent Landmark poll showed him slightly over 4% in Georgia.
It will be interesting to see, when all is said and done, just how big/small the percentage of those who voted but never trumped is.
Hard to really know how competitive Georgia is—if at all—without seeing some results for metro Atlanta, especially Cobb and Gwinnett. If there were county polling in each of those showing a tight race in both—like 5 points or less—that might indicate a competitive race—but probably not if Trump had a 10 or more point lead in each county. In 2012, metro Atlanta (then consisting of 28 counties) gave Obama barely a half-point win, but he lost the rest of the state by nearly a 3-2 margin. The 2014 top statewide races were a similar pattern—narrow wins for Nunn and Carter in metro Atlanta (2 points or less) but landslide losses in the rest of the state. Anybody with county data, or even presidential polling in some state races, I’m sure would be more than welcome to share their results here, but as the old saying goes, I am not holding my breath…….
That’s why I asked Roundtree about the crosstabs on metro-Atlanta from the last poll. I haven’t seen them yet. I’ve heard from a few local campaigns that are polling their own races that Trump is 9-10 points behind in Cobb and North Fulton. If true that means Georgia could be in play.
yes, yes, you’re right. We’re just slammed and our data guy is in Dublin today. It’s on the list — we will post it here, not forgotten.
No worries. This is the busy season for you.
I can’t post a pdf or a jpg here, so I have to type the answers shorthand. Apologize for informality. Landmark poll of Georgia poll from 10.11.16, Metro Atlanta vs non-Metro Atlanta.
…………………Metro Atlanta
………………….YES………NO
Trump………36.2……….56.9
Clinton……..52.9……….33.9
Johnson…….6.1…………3.2
Undecided…4.8…………6.0
What was the split between voters in ‘Metro Atlanta’ and not? And was this self selected (i.e. “Do you live in Metro Atlanta?”) or geographically driven (i.e. “What county to you live in?” Surveyor then looks at chart, if X, then Metro Atlanta, if Y, then No.)
Metro Atlanta is defined as the 10 Splost counties plus Coweta and Forsyth. There are eternal battles over ‘what’s metro atlanta’, but in my view, this is the best way to define it politically. It’s a little less than half the overall vote in Georgia in a Presidential election year.
*cough* https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/10/13/georgia-play-likely-lean-gop-plus-will-counties-vote/ *cough*
“It should be noted that the SurveyMonkey poll is not a true random sample…”
’nuff said.
Keep in mind exactly the same thing is true of the LAT/USA Today poll. It’s a panel, not a poll.
it’s hard to take anything with monkey in the name seriously
For some comparison purposes (Mark’s polling), listed below is how metro Atlanta (his 12-county definition) in the 2012 presidential election (Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale Counties combined):
Romney 45.4% (856,138 votes), Obama 53.3% (1,004,347 votes), Johnson 1.3% (23,651 votes)—total metro turnout of 1,884,136 votes.
Other 147 counties combined—-Romney 60.7% (1,222,550 votes), Obama 38.2% (769,480 votes), Johnson 1.1% (21,673 votes)—total turnout here of 2,013,703. Thus, under these definitions, metro Atlanta would have accounted for 48.3% of the state’s total votes—as Mark said, a little less than half the statewide total vote.
If I read the poll above correctly, Trump is trailing in metro Atlanta by 17 points and winning in the rest of the state by 23 points. That would mean a much closer race than in 2012, when Romney won the state by about 8 points, and would seem to confirm talk thru the grapevine that Trump is not polling well in some traditionally GOP areas like Buckhead, Dunwoody and Sandy Springs.
If you go by the 28-county definition of metro Atlanta in effect in 2012 (think it is 30 counties today—of course the Census Bureau definition of metro Atlanta has changed over the last 50 years), Obama led Romney there by a razor-thin margin of less than 13,000 votes, 49.7% Obama to 49.15 Romney. The rest of the state (other 131 counties combined) backed Romney by 19 points, 59% to 40%, about a 317,000-vote margin in Romney’s favor outside “that” version of metro Atlanta.
In days of old, Republicans would have run better in metro Atlanta (under whatever definition) than outside of it. Times certainly have changed. In 2002, when metro Atlanta consisted of 20 counties, Roy Barnes actually edged out Sonny Perdue in that region, but his margin was so slim (about 8,000 votes), Perdue easily wiped it out in the rest of the state. Perdue may have been the first Republican elected statewide in Georgia who failed to carry metro Atlanta.