Special Election Day Prediction Thread
Today in Georgia, we have the following special elections:
Sixth Congressional District,
State Senate District 32,
Roswell Municipal
Johns Creek Municipal
City of Stonecrest (NEW!)
City of South Fulton (NEW!)
Polls are open until 7pm but you may weigh in now. I am out of the prediction business and shall practice self-restraint and not publicly share mine. At least, not yet. You guys go head and tell us what’s going to happen. (And yes, on at least one of your Facebook pages, I noted at least one of you is expecting about 120% of the vote in CD6. May want to do the math and try to make sure the votes you’re predicting don’t exceed 100%). Go:
About Author
Charlie
Founder of GeorgiaPol.com; Now weekly columnist Very interested in Georgia and Georginas. Interest in politics is waning daily.
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My 6th district prediction from the morning reads.
Ossoff 43
Handel 21
Gray 16
Moody 12
Hill 5
Everyone else 3
I guess we finally agree on something. I don’t think Ossoff gets to 48 but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
Ossoff/Handel run-off. Two more months of terrible commercials. But at least we won’t have to watch David Perdue play to upper-middle class white male’s insecurity by telling them that Dan Moody is “one of us”.
Newsflash: David Perdue is richer than you. Dan Moody is richer than you. Neither is really that interested in helping you out.
Ossoff 52%
The rest…really doesnt matter if I’m right.
The reason being…enthusiasm, low turnout voters breaking Ossoff, and voters with no party ID breaking for Ossoff
Unfortunately, I think Ossoff wins this thing outright tonight. I hope I am wrong. Regardless, he’ll be outta there come January 2019.
Publisher’s note: This isn’t “Bull Moose” as known to us for years. Future comments for this new member will be under the name “Bully Pulpit”.
Thanks Charlie!
Is there a prize for the prediction winner???
What about William Llop? Certainly his two failing bids in the 11th District mean his run in the 6th is the charm, right?
Ossoff 39% (Fake Polls are inflating his numbers)
Handel 17%
Hill 16%
Moody 14%
All others
No way Hill is third. Have you ever met the guy? I’m surprised he’s made it as far as he has.
I hear ya. He definitely was not very sharp State Senator, but I’ve actually run into a lot of random people who know him personally. It’s kind of odd actually.
But hey, it’s just a fun guess. If I’m correct here then I’ll pick some numbers tonight too 🙂
My predictions:
Ossoff will be one vote shy of 50% leading him to scream and yell at himself for not living in the 6th.
Karen Handel will come in second and everyone who disliked her because #2010 will suddenly like her because everyone is opportunistic and fake.
Bob Gray will come in third. I had the chance to work for him early in his campaign and this is my takeaway: He’s a really, really, really great guy who has a servants heart. I think he has a future in politics if he doesn’t make it into the runoff.
Dan Moody will realize he could have spent ~$2,000,000 for better causes than losing a congressional race that he was never going to win in the first place.
Judson Hill’s hair will get fifth place.
Judson Hill will get sixth place.
Amy Kremer will have debt collection calls Wednesday morning.
Bruce LeVell will and should look at running for state house one day.
And consultants will make bank on candidates that should never have run because they told them “your junk is bigger than everyone else’s and you should run for congress to prove it”
Preview of coming attractions in 2018….
I laughed out loud at the 2,000,000.
I’ll put my chips in on Ossoff taking the race, if anything 90% of the time I try to predict a race I’m dead wrong so this will help the Republican field.
I think is very possible that in the Senate District 32 race you end up with two Dems in the runoff. It’s gonna be interesting to see if one of the five GOP candidates will be able to break the 20% of the vote that I suspect will be needed to make the runoff.
the 6th race has been a really big deal and a lot of folks are excited, so i don’t see why there might not be a high turnout…so maybe 120% can happen…
With Kemp counting the votes anything is possible!
Ossoff will “win” tonight with 42% of the vote.
Karen Handel will make it to the run-off with 20%. (Beats Ossoff 53% to 47% in run-off)
Judson Hill’s Hair: 13%
Bob Gray: 11%
Dan Moody: Will learn that $2 million buys 7% of the vote…thinks to himself what he could have done with Ossoff’s war chest.
Bruce LeVell: 4%
“Others”: Dividing up the last 3% slice
Ultimately, California will spend lots of cash trying to make #GA06 a Trump referendum but fails to do so. President Trump will take to Twitter and gloat in between holes at his golf course.
#FakeNews
And life will be good.
#MakingAmericaOKagain
My prediction is roughly the same. Ossoff in the 40% range and Handel in 2nd place.
Don’t see Judson’s hair breaking 10%. It’s starting to look old and saggy. Nobody like saggy baggies.
If Ossoff doesn’t break 45%, he’s toast in the run-off.
I’ll go further and say Handel wins by over 60% in the run-off.
Ossoff wins outright.
Ossoff – 47%
Hill – 13.5%
Handel – 13%
Moody – 12%
Gray – 9%
Hill doesn’t break double digits.
Is it fake news when Edatl just says it to watch the reactions ? Nah.
JC Muni. Don’t know how to handicap this one, as Coughlin served on the council before, but Flores has the backing of the mayor. Coughlin 55-45.
I supported Coughlin – he’s intellectual, engaged, and accessible, and seems to have the energy to do this job right and be a thorn in the side of the entrenched council.
Flores’s qualifications are a friendship with the mayor and second-fiddle to Ralph Reed at the FFRC. No thanks.
“Entrenched council?” The longest serving members of the council are Davenport and Zaprowski and they are ending their first term. Boy, “entrenched” isn’t what it used to be.
I predict the local tv station ad sales guys can be found in the near future at the Cheetah making it rain. For the most part you guys aren’t any different than pro sports fans rooting for their favorite laundry.
I heard on the radio that someone had a sign that said “Vote your Ossoff!”
Since trump is not actually running, I think Ossoff goes the Nunn/Carter route of actually performing pretty much like every other democrat does despite the media hype and polling and will be at 38, Handel 22 and Gray wins the third place participation trophy.