Progressively WINNING: Abrams’ Strategy to Win!
The primary election of former House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams proved lots of things. Political nerds will confirm Abrams had a far better winning strategy powered by a dynamic field plan. Reports that Abrams had teams in cities and towns from north to south Georgia are verified by the outcome of the vote. Abrams took lead in the vast majority of Georgia counties. My own community in the metro area had fast moving GOTV canvassers that did not identify with either candidate directly, but were formerly connected with Leader Abrams, rushing from door to door to remind voters to get out and vote just before election day.
Although exquisitely executed, Abrams’ strategy is not a secret. Outside of the “leaked” campaign plan earlier this year, the Abrams team exhibited perfect calculation of long standing campaign formulas. Contacting voters directly has shown time and again to be the winning strategy. Direct voter contact coupled with Abrams’ earned media campaign, which had her listed as the front runner, propelled her into a lead bigger than imagined by her opponent. In Georgia, we call the large margin between Abrams and her opponent a “molly whopping.” Evans has since accepting her loss with grace and has fully supported Abrams in her continued campaign.
What does the Abrams winning strategy mean for the November 2018 election against the Republican nominee? It means Abrams needs “mo money, mo money, mo money!” Voters can understand the cost of putting up a television ad or littering the highways with yard signs. However, the cost associated with going door to door to encourage progressive registered voters to go to the polls is much higher. Canvassing is the absolute slowest and most expensive way to campaign per vote. However, canvassing – that is knocking door to door – is also the most reliable way to get a vote. Abrams proved there is no way to get around it.
Democratic voters wanting to get a head start on helping Abrams get to the Governor’s mansion need to pony up dollars and/or time. Talking on social media or hash tagging your way into #AmericanHistory is not going to do the trick if the Abrams strategy will work again November.
Some Democrats begrudged the primary battle between the Stacey’s. If practice makes perfect, then Abrams is just getting warmed up. During the primary, Leader Abrams got to put her organized field strategy into motion, test out weak points, and gather copious amounts of data to help identify her base which is the key to her November election. A outwardly weak opponent may not have primed Abrams enough to give it all in November. Now where will she go with it? Will the Abrams team …
(A) Register new voters excited about Georgia making American history
(B) Turn out the base of existing registered voters
(C) Swing to the middle to pick up independent leaning voters
(D) Find voters tired of Trump, pointing guns at teens, or threatening Georgia based airlines in exchange for 13 people…
Whatever the strategies employed, my guess is Abrams’ historic win has encouraged progressives and Democrats to talk to their neighbors and family members to ensure they are registered TODAY! Democrats around the country are receiving requests to donate in the Georgia campaign, will Georgia Democrats invest as much into their own state as other democrats from around the country?
While Georgia Democrats work to stuff Abrams’ coffers with campaign donations, we are simultaneously popping our popcorn to watch the remainder of the Republican run off a.k.a. the game show entitled “Who Can Act Trumpier?”
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LaDawn LBJ Jones
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All you and her got is identity politics. That’s it.
What does that actually mean?
It means: muh feeeeeelins!
Mike,
If you’re stating or implying that Ms. Abrams has no public policy positions, and the only way she will get votes is based on her skin color or gender, that’s wrong on many levels.
Well…they got me, too! There is nothing ‘identity’ about my old white ass. And we identify you as a bigot.
Have a nice day 🙂
I wonder if Selena Montgomery, that girl from Mississippi, has endorsed her yet? https://www.harpercollins.com/author/cr-104432/selena-montgomery/
I pointed that out a week ago… You taking the Noway class on staying up to date? HAHAHAHAHA
Miss Abrams should tell her followers to mind their manners. A repeat of the Networks incident would give Republicans a powerful weapon to use against her.
I meant Netroots.
You mean, attacks on (presumably) Cagle by Abrams supporters will be used by Cagle to… do what?
P.S. I suspect that this contest will have a low “undecided” factor. It should be pretty easy for people to make up their minds this time.
You know, before Rosanne’s catastrophic fail, I actually would have ageeed with you. Twice in two days would have been Twilight Zone weird, though. Now? People aren’t even talking in their sleep!
I might have taken that bet 2-3 elections ago but not anymore.
It means Stacey is gonna get “ molly whopped “ in Georgia, LOL!
Evans would have been a MUCH tougher out for the GOP ( although they still would have prevailed imo)
Does anyone really think appealing to the urban vote plus ITP liberals equals statewide victory in Georgia?
LOL
“alpha male” is afraid of a woman governor!
Idiotic statement. I loved Nikki Haley as gov right across the river.
What I would be “ afraid” of, is a Trotskyite governor.
But fear not “Indypendent” . That ain’t happening in Georgia anytime soon.
Lol at Pope. You don’t even realize you Keep proving the point big guy! Rascist rascist rascist. It’s all you got. And guess what. It ain’t gonna work. We are gonna beat all those Trotskyite rear ends.
Heck, it will be a moral victory for you guys if it’s closer than 56-44.
But keep hope alive. One day Georgia will turn blue. At least that’s what you folks keep telling yourselves.
Or wistfulness for dog whistle time times of yore when the GOP establishment could in polite company pretend it wasn’t tolerant of if not reliant on appealing to racists.
“Does anyone really think appealing to the urban vote plus ITP liberals equals statewide victory in Georgia?”
Ooooooohhh keep underestimating us. That’s it…… yesssssssssss
Oh, and MikeSilver, “Indypendent” ( ironic screen name that it is ) just furthered your point.
All they got is identity politics.
I still want to know what that means? Do you know what it means? What do you think it means?
“alpha” male
LMAO!
OK so here’s the definition I found: a tendency for people of a particular religion, race, social background, etc., to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad-based party politics.
So I don’t get how this applies to Stacey Abrams. What is it about her candidacy that makes it “identity politics”?
You mean we should look at her for her ability to manage her personal finances?
We didn’t really get to go there with Trump, did we?
Stacey A got more votes than all R’s combined in 23 counties.
Both Stacey’s combined got more votes than all R’s combined in 39 counties.
That’s a lot more than just ITP. It includes Clinch, Peach, Clay, Chattahoochee, Sumter, Burke, Screven, Warren, Dooly, and Quitman counties, among others. Those appear to be D counties now.
There was only a total vote difference between D and R of 52,000 in this primary. As I mentioned before, Jason Carter gained 75,000 more votes than all R candidates combined did between the primary and the general. For him it wasn’t enough because he started out 292,000 down. Stacey is only down 52,000 going into the general. Uh oh!
R turnout for this primary was almost the same as 2014, but D’s added 251,000 more voters this time around. That makes for a very close race.
I forgot to mention: When I downloaded the election results file from the SoS website, I got a warning message: “The file you are trying to open is in a different format than specified by the file extension. Verify that the file is not corrupted and is from a trusted source before opening the file.”
Isn’t that the perfect finale and legacy to Brian Kemp’s career in politics?
C’mon Mr. Pope, I will give you some of these points in the VA race as they are very much a purple state now and frankly not even similar to Georgia’s current political map. Alabama is much more of a valid comparison but that race had almost nothing to do with Democrats winning on those issues. It had to do with the Republican’s life long penchant for little girls and even then Jones won with a plurality with 48% of the vote going to the pervert along with 2% going to write-ins.
At this juncture with a political eon until the General, Abrams doesn’t have a prayer in the Fox Nation that is 2018 Georgia. Of course never say never in politics and Cagle could yet taken down on character issues or the enough Republicans might be dumb enough to want to see Kemp to blow shit up…
C’mon Mr. Pope, I will give you some of these points in the VA race as they are very much a purple state now and frankly not even similar to Georgia’s current political map. Alabama is much more of a valid comparison but that race had almost nothing to do with Democrats winning on those issues. It had to do with the Republican’s life long penchant for little girls and even then Jones won with a plurality with 48% of the vote going to the pervert along with 2% going to write-ins.
At this juncture with a political eon until the General, Abrams doesn’t have a prayer in the Fox Nation that is 2018 Georgia. Of course never say never in politics and Cagle could yet taken down on character issues or the enough Republicans might be dumb enough to want to see Kemp to blow stuff up…
I want the edit function back please.
I think the military budget has long been obscene and needs to be cut back. Keep up the nuclear arsenal but focus on modern wars and the fact we won’t be fighting the Russians in Europe or the Koreans on the peninsula.
Also, if we invested in education (i.e. Tech Schools) and helping people get out of minimum wage jobs, how much would that help the SS/Medicare?
I’ve got a real crazy idea. Let’s save beaucoup bucks by using excuses to go bomb brown people all the time in our “modern wars” as well. Quit allowing Presidents their dog wagging privileges.
I doubt Abrams will be elected Governor and it isn’t on the issues. It is due to while identity politics. This state is filled with hicks and the vast majority will never, ever vote for a black woman EVEN IF IT HELPS their economic interests.
White rural/mountain Georgia will likely never vote for a black woman. I doubt the urban areas of Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta, Macon, Columbus and the black belt counties will make up for it but I could be wrong.
I sincerely hope I am wrong. I left the Republican Party; I will never be a lapdog to some asshole like Donald Trump.
As is stated above and I’ve stated on another thread, race matters, and candidly not just in Georgia. Though the colors red and blue matter as well. Some yellow dog Democrats still exist in rural Georgia and I’m envisioning them sweating like a whore in church over this upcoming gubernatorial election.
One of my strategies against Ralston this season is to convince Republican voters to sit out this one because everyone in the Status Quo GOP is bought and sold by Koch Brothers/billionaire money. So not only am I going to energize the progressive vote, I’m going to de-energize the Bamboozled vote.
You just might be wrong.
Oh, and if issues won elections then we would get better selections.
All right Democrats. Please refrain from:
A) claiming that identity politics has NOTHING TO DO with Stacey Abrams’ campaign when her explicit overt primary strategy is to maximize female and black registration and turnout
B) claiming that white voters will reject Abrams SOLELY DUE TO HER RACE when these same voters have been voting against white progressives like Jim Martin, Max Cleland, Michelle Nunn etc. for going on 20 years
C) when Democrats have spent years proclaiming that the decrease in the percentage of the white electorate – as opposed to, say, economic growth attracting progressives from other parts of the country to Georgia – is what will make the state competitive again.
It is as if you guys have some sort of “we can do it but you can’t” thing going on. Especially when you employ classist/racist terminology like “hicks” and your trotting out the “EVEN IF IT HELPS their economic interests” that is every bit as patronizing as Donald Trump is – presuming to know what is best for a segment of voters that you aren’t a member of – when he tweets about how great the black employment numbers are.
Democrats:
I got 3 more for you.
1. Please stop comparing Georgia to Virginia and Alabama races this year. Virginia isn’t even a purple state. They haven’t elected a Republican governor since 2010 and before then the last was 1998. To put it another way, the GOP has won 3 governor’s races in Virginia since 1978 in a state where the governor is limited to a single term. There has been a bit more parity with their U.S. Senate seats, but only because John Warner served 5 terms. Apart from him, Democrats have won 7 of 7 Senate races. Virginia elects Republicans no more often than New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. As for Alabama, it took A) Jeff Sessions who could have held that seat for life becoming attorney general, B) a scandal taking down the sitting governor, C) that governor appointing the state attorney general to the U.S. Senate in an attempt to keep from getting investigated by him and D) the state GOP and the RNC rallying around that attorney general instead of backing someone else leading to Roy Moore getting nominated and E) Roy Moore not being not only exposed for dating and harassing teenage women but choosing to lie about it rather than apologizing for it. Even then Moore only lost by 2 points, and it was not the result of a massive surge in progressive votes but rather the share of the GOP vote dropping by hundreds of thousands. Again, had Moore simply admitted the truth and apologized far fewer GOP voters stay home and he wins easily. And had the state and national GOP simply backed the congressman in the primary instead of the attorney general, Moore never wins it and the GOP retains that seat by the large margins that Sessions and Shelby are always retained by.
2. Please stop pretending as if the Democratic primary in 2014 and the primary in 2018 constitute valid comparisons, meaning that the increase in vote totals correlate to an increase in Democratic voters or more energy and excitement on the Democratic side. Instead, in the 2014 race, Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn essentially ran unopposed against unknown, unfunded opposition. There was no reason to show up except for the down ballot races. This year you actually had a contest on the Democratic side. It was a contest that Stacey Evans played poorly by trying to match and even outflank Abrams in running to the left. The whole alleged “progressive versus mainstream moderate Staceys showdown” never occurred as there wasn’t a bit of difference between the candidates on the issues. Both Staceys ran well to the left of Roy Barnes, Zell Miller, Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond in statewide races, and to the left of Sanford Bishop and David Scott. An actual “progressive versus moderate” race would have been between either Stacey and John Barrow, as it would have been a race where actual substantial policy differences would have existed. Barrow would have won the governor’s race in 2014 against a Nathan Deal beleaguered by the terrible economy, the failure of T-SPLOST and ethics issues. If he can win a couple of secretary of state races, he will have a real shot at winning the governor’s race when Casey Cagle leaves office in 2026. He shouldn’t even try to challenge Cagle in 2022.
Which bring me to 3: the idea that Cagle is vulnerable because “Trump lost Cobb County” has never made any sense. Even if Trump hadn’t won Georgia by 5 points and didn’t possess a 49-46 approval rating advantage in the state (which has been as high as 53-35): Casey Cagle isn’t Donald Trump. He’s won 3 straight statewide elections and has been a solid public figure in his political and business careers with no scandals, extreme ideology or job performance issues to point to. He has never had any real opposition from any group or leaders within the Georgia GOP, or any outside the Georgia GOP for any reason other than his simply being a Republican. Using a national candidate to drag down a local candidate only works when A) the local candidate is unknown and B) the guy you are trying to tie him to is VERY unpopular locally. A good example: Jon Ossoff didn’t try to tie Karen Handel to Donald Trump because 1) Handel was well known to local voters and 2) Trump won that district and polls pretty decently there. By contrast Handel very effectively tied the unknown Ossoff to the deeply unpopular Nancy Pelosi WHILE publicly soliciting and accepting Trump’s support. Which Handel had to do because – unlike Cagle – she was never liked or trusted by a significant percentage of Georgia GOPers. Cagle doesn’t need Trump, the RGA or the RNC to campaign or raise money for him, but it wouldn’t be a problem for him if they did in the least.
Despite the rose-colored projections using data that was both selectively collected and analyzed out of context, this race is merely going to be one between a mainstream Republican and a very progressive Democrat in a red state. It is allegedly trending purple – just as Texas, Florida and North Carolina allegedly have been since the 1990s according to the Ruy Teixeira/John Judis worldview, but another story for another day – but it is going to take another good 10 years to get there. That’s why I say “Barrow 2026.”
So it sounds like you think Trump coming here to campaign for (presumably) Cagle would be helpful?
Of course it would. Expext that rally after Labor Day!
Part of me thinks that all these oddly timed pardons are at least partly because Trump sees the end of the road ahead and wants to get them done while he still can. So maybe he can come down here as a civilian, assuming he’s not wearing an ankle bracelet by then. That should really fire up the deplorables!
Same with the NK deal. He’s pushing it way faster than anyone can react or even prepare for. T is feeling the heat.
When I read this level of GOP hand wringing and cemetery whistling going on on georgiapol, I feel like we have jumped straight to ‘then they fight us’.
Feels good.
Incoherent, mumbling…
https://hotair.com/archives/2018/05/30/ben-rhodes-election-night-cant-even/amp/
51 replies so far. Those who believe Stacey has a realistic chance, please give your after election winning percentage for her.
50-49.
Really? I just don’t see that…