A Questionable Poll With All Dems Up in Georgia
Democrats almost assuredly like the results from the latest Gravis Marketing poll.
Trump disapproval 49%, only 46% approve! Generic Dem congressional candidate up by four points! Abrams over Kemp by two points! Sarah Riggs Amico(!) over Goff [sic] Duncan by two points! Barrow over Raffensberger by four(!) points! Same-sex marriage supporters outnumber opponents by three percent!
But after earning a Medill F for the Lite Gov race there’s a minor chestnut to consider: how could Georgia Democrats have this rosy an outlook?
Maybe because the respondents were evenly split between Trump/Clinton voters. And 54% female. And the poll was conducted just after the GOP runoff.
So perhaps this is accurate. But it seems a bit unlikely to this blogger.
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A fake poll?
In other news….
Small sample, online poll, cell phone users only, high margin of error (3.8). I wouldn’t put much stock in this poll without some corroborating polls.
The true numbers for Georgia probably are within +/- 3.8 percentage points, which means Democrats should be that excited unless they think just being close is the same thing as winning. FiveThirtyEight gives them a C+ on accuracy (link below). It’s believable that the numbers would be close, though – Trump only carried Georgia by 5.2 percentage points, the lowest margin of any Republican since 1996.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
*shouldn’t be excited. I should really learn to proofread.
538 giving marks on ANYONE’S accuracy is a joke. This from the folks who had Hilly winning at 10 pm!!! Laughable!
Methodology, Tabs…?
You want questionable polling? How about the actual results from the Republican governors runoff?
No freaking way Kemp picks up that many votes. Looks like two hackers did the job of one.
If someone was going to hack an election they wouldn’t change the vote to a 70-30 win. That would be too obvious. Also, the same hackers must have hacked Casey’s internal polling and showed him tanking in the last week too.
But bless your heart and you just do you.
and someone would only have 4.20 percent.
Tabasco, Indy. Or are you a Texas Pete fan?
Well Trump’s numbers are higher than Obama’s at this time. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/07/president-trump-approval-rating-is-4-points-higher-than-media-darling-obama-at-same-point-in-his-presidency/
“And President Trump’s approval rating is currently at 48% on Rasmussen Reports.”
“Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. ”
The Economist/YouGov for a similar date range (7/29-7/31) has his approval at 43%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
Fivethirtyeight’s aggregate of polls shows him at 41.3% approval.
Does anybody know who Gravis is?? I’m trying to figure out why anybody should put stock in their polling about anything, not just this.
Look at the client list…
http://www.gravismarketing.com/
Huh.
I only recognize two names out of the bunch – which doesn’t say much for either him or me, not sure which! It does indicate that’s not a top-drawer polling organization, like was my first impression. Thanks, Ellynn.