Abrams-Commissioned Poll: Stacey 48-Brian 42
An internal poll for Stacey Abrams has the Democratic challenger leading Brian Kemp 48%-42% of likely voters.
The poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group who found in May that Abrams was beating Kemp 49%-40%.
I’m not smart enough to comment on the validity of the poll or the firm’s methods. However, GHY compares its results to The AJC‘s poll at the start of the month with both candidates at 45%.
Compared to the AJC survey, Stacey’s improvement comes from her tightening up the race among men (45% Abrams, 47% Kemp, versus the AJC’s 39% Abrams,53% Kemp), while Stacey maintains a double-digit margin among women (GHY: Abrams 52%-41%, AJC: Abrams 50%-39%).
In addition to Stacey’s current lead, she has more INTENSE support than Kemp,and among the sub-sample of respondents who say they are CERTAIN to vote, Stacey leads by a larger 51% to 43% margin. Both results are important given that voter intensity/turnout is a critical ingredient of winning midterm elections.
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I’m sure Kavanaugh and Trump are not helping Kemp. However I would be surprised if the gap was as large as this poll says it is.
Lol!
Caroline Why do you waste your time listing to liberal polls in a conservative state like Georgia? Stacy doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell in winning any more than Hillary or Bernie Sanders.
We’re not in the statue tumbling , sandblasting Stone Mountain and the rest of the liberal idiocy.
Georgia has not turned into a liberal gulag just yet but I know you’re trying.
Public polling has been tied. It’s not inconceivable that people remember Kemp’s abysmal primary campaign and are holding it against him and the fact that things have really been going south for Trump with the indictments and people turning state’s evidence. Now you can add Kavanaugh into the mix with only 30% of the country wanting him to put him on the court.
I meed a Breathe Right Nasal Strip to stop my snorin’…
Good you snore while we’ve been working. I bet most of the GOP base must be snoring too.
No what a bunch of good ole boys and normal women will remember some idiot wants to sandblast Stone Mountain and the rest of the morons want turn over all the statues on the town square. Plus they’ll associate her rightfully with the hideous tax your a—— to the wall Obama and Hillary and the nonstop hateful rhetoric and that should do it.
Yes, we all know you guys are the sad party clinging to the lost cause. You’re all about the past and nothing about the future and how bright it could be for Georgians.
Yes the party that creates all of the jobs, wealth and freedom that allows everybody to improve while you morons are for what? Mo’ taxes, hate and commie/ lib policies that have never worked anywhere on earth!
Plus all you get are more food stamps, some sniveling little snowflake coming to steal your freaking guns and regulate everybody’s life and business down the drain! If you can sell that piece of crap you deserve to win.
Seriously what the hell are you jerks running on? I’ve been asking since I’ve been on the blog no one said a damn thing.
So, we’re “bitter clingers?” Lolol! That worked so well for Obama!!
I would venture they are running on creating the best environment possible for people to be able to pull themselves up and ensure a better life for their children. That means ensuring that people do not have want for food, medicine, or a decent public education system, so that they have the opportunity to spend more time with their children and ensure they are raised in a moral and decent manner.
“‘Bitter clingers?”…That worked so well for Obama!”
It also clearly didn’t hurt him that much, either, as he was a two-term Pres. But it clearly hurt some Snowflakes’ feelings.
Downthemiddle. You speak as though the prospect of keeping Stone Mountain as it is and “tax your a– to the wall Obama and Hillary” politics is somehow a universal value in Georgia.
Four years ago, about 43 percent of Georgia voted for Jason Carter instead of Nathan Deal. The distance between your politics and those of the people you disagree with is small. It’s flipping one out of 12 of those voters. Less, if Democrats simply turn out one more voter for every five they had last time.
You speak with certainty in uncertain times. That’s unwise.
Well maybe you can convince them to vote lib before they are old enough to know better.
Even people who raise their kids to be fans of the Cleveland Browns will have their day.
fyi 538 rates ghy ok at b+ but if ga men 45-47 then wow.
Internal polls — particularly without crosstabs — are always questionable. What this reveals, I am guessing, is how the Abrams campaign might be modeling their internal metrics compared to the AJC’s polling assumptions.
In the earlier public polls, the analysis firm had to make an educated guess at what black voter turnout will look like, and pegged it at 28 percent of the electorate, which would be in line with previous elections given the demography of the state in 2018.
But Georgia has never had a black major party candidate for governor before.
Suppose that 28 percent number is just plain wrong, and Stacey Abrams is looking at an Obama-esque bump of an extra 10 percent black turnout. Suddenly, that 28 percent is more like 31 or 32 percent, which closes four extra points on the poll. If that’s coupled with some fall off for Kemp in Republican support relative to Nathan Deal, which is conceivable, given … well, everything … then a poll that puts Abrams comfortably ahead isn’t absurd on its face.
This result is plausible.
Which means the campaign is about to get very, very ugly.
I’ll know how credible this poll is soon after I check Kemp’s Twitter feed and see if he’s talking about how she loves child molesters and doesn’t wash behind her ears.