October 2, 2018 10:17 AM
Another Poll Finds Gov. Race A Toss-Up
The latest poll from Landmark Communications finds Brian Kemp leading Stacey Abrams 48%-46.3%.
What I find more interesting is that the same numbers hold true for the Lite Governor race as well. Were I a Republican I’d be very concerned heading into the election.
That seems to lend some credence to Abrams’ internal poll released on Sept. 23.
I don’t know how the race will go or what it will take for either candidate to win. HOWEVER! I am willing to make a wager now. If Abrams wins I will exclusively eat pizza for a week. If she loses, I will only eat pizza for dinner for a week.
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edatlanta
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I would venture to say she is probably doing even better than that poll suggests. Likely voter templates are going to be way off this year because turnout is going to resemble a normal midterm. There are a ton of new people registering (most under 35), and they are voting republican.
Has voter registration really increased? Is it true that a big chunk of first-time voters are <35?
Under 35’s are going to vote republican? Any evidence for this? How about women?
I will happily take a bet that the race is not even and will not even be close. This is not California. There is some degree of sanity.
What’s your definition of close?
Well, at least the race is being polled but it would be better if some better polling outfits did it.
Like who? Landmark has historically had a pretty close track of Georgia’s political pulse. The uptick in Trump’s approval rating with his base due to Kavanaugh is also reflected in 538’s aggregate of national polls. I’m still not convinced how accurate any of the phone polls are in the current era given the segments of the population that still answers unknown callers.
I was thinking Survey USA who has a good record.
Also from this poll:
“Stacey Abrams holding a 9-point advantage among women voters”
” 54% of Georgians disapprove of the way Trump is handing his job”.
https://patch.com/georgia/atlanta/kemp-leads-older-voters-abrams-strong-among-women-new-poll