Ipsos Poll Shows a Tie Between Kemp and Abrams
Ipsos, in partnership with the University of Virginia and Reuters, has released a poll today showing that Secretary of State Brian Kemp (47%) and Stacey Abrams (46%) are tied among likely voters in polling for the upcoming November 6 election. The poll was conducted from October 4-11 with a sample of 1,999 adults from Georgia, including 1,088 of which are likely voters. The poll consisted of 18 questions, though some of them had multiple parts to each question. The site linked has the topline, full report, and data tables for the poll.
As a political pundit who has been known to be wrong (I picked Hillary Clinton to win in 2016), I think this poll bodes very well for Kemp. In tracking previous polls versus election results in other recent Georgia elections, the trend has been that the Democrats vote total is maxed out at the polling percentage that they receive prior to the election. The recent Handel-Ossoff election in GA-6 is a recent example of Democratic polling percentage versus final results. Ossoff was polling at 48.8% in the cumulative polling total at RealClear Politics and finished with 48.2% of the vote.
Some highlights of the poll:
- 51% approve of President Donald Trump, while 48% disapprove
- 45% of likely voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% do not
- 44% don’t believe the allegations against Kavanaugh, while 40% do
- 49% support Kavanaugh’s nomination, while 44% oppose it
About Author
lawtonsack
Lawton is a graduate of Georgia Southern University (the GSU) with a degree in Information Technology. He has held numerous positions within the Georgia Republican Party throughout the years.
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A runoff in the Governor’s race is likely. What are your thoughts on that?
I think the same thing was being said during the 2010 race… It will be interesting to see what two weeks of early voting shows comparing voterID and voter histories. It showed a large swing for Deal by the end of the two weeks…
If Abrams keeps polling at 47%, I think Kemp will avoid a runoff, as I don’t think the Libertarian is going to crack 3%. It is going to be close, though.
Agreed. Not that I don’t think it’s going to be close, but we could probably see a 51/48 (rounded). It will make some of the down ballot races a little fuzzy.
Respectfully, still sticking with Kemp’s five point win, even with the Libertarian thrown in.
I love your optimism, good buddy! With all the national attention, I’m afraid it could be a nail-biter.
LOL! Well, I’m gonna be rat-here on EEE-Lection Night, either taking my medicine in front of everybody or reveling in my own omniscience! LOL! I hope you and the boys can make it, too!
Noway, you are undefeated so far…I don’t think your first loss will be from sandblastin’ Stacy.
If so, GA is hosed.