Kemp: Updated Numbers Show Clear Victory
From a press release from Brian Kemp’s campaign:
On Tuesday, Georgia counties reported their provisional and military/overseas ballot results to the Secretary of State’s office. Seven days after the November 6th election, businessman Brian Kemp’s lead without a runoff or recount remains clear and insurmountable. Even with lawsuits, publicity stunts, and television ads, Stacey Abrams has no viable path to a recount, runoff, or victory. In response, the Kemp for Governor campaign issued the following statement:
“Since Election night, hardworking Georgians have watched how the ‘new’ Democratic Party behaves,” said Cody Hall, Press Secretary. “From reporting fake vote totals and hosting desperate press conferences to filing dangerous lawsuits that attempt to rewrite election law, count illegal votes and create new ones, Stacey Abrams and her radical backers will stop at nothing to undermine democracy and attempt to steal this election to be Georgia’s next governor.
“After all of the theatrics, the math remains the same. Abrams lost and Brian Kemp won. This election is over. Stacey Abrams needs to concede. It’s time to move past the campaign and work towards a safer, stronger Georgia.”
As of Wednesday, November 14, 2018 (12:00 PM)
*Information below is public
Total Votes Reported: 3,938,582
Kemp: 1,978,170 (50.23%)
Abrams: 1,923,185 (48.83%)
Metz: 37,227 (.95%)
Kemp Margin: + 54,985 votes
Counties Certified: 156
Counties Remaining to Certify: 3
Counties Reporting Total Provisional Results: 159 (All counties)
Original Provisional Ballots in all 159 Counties: 21,190
Total Provisional Ballots Accepted in all 159 Counties: 11,872
Percentage of Provisional Ballots Deemed Ineligible by County Officials: 43.97%
Counties Not Yet Reporting Provisional Ballot Results: 0
Maximum Number of eligible provisional ballots outstanding in all counties: 0
Maximum Possible Remaining Outstanding Military Absentee Ballots in Counties Not Yet Certified: 0
Total possible ballots remaining: roughly 411 (absentees reported by Gwinnett County with birth date issue)
**All numbers provided are available to the general public and reported by the counties
FACT: Even if every vote (including illegally cast votes) argued for by Abrams for Governor was granted by the courts, verified, and cast for Abrams, Brian Kemp still wins this race without a runoff. No pending court decision changes that mathematical fact. This race is over. Brian Kemp is Governor-Elect.
Stacey Abrams needs to answer a simple question: Will she accept the outcome of this election and respect the will of Georgia voters, or will she continue to put personal ambitions ahead of the state by contesting this election in an attempt to have the courts help her steal this race?
About Author
lawtonsack
Lawton is a graduate of Georgia Southern University (the GSU) with a degree in Information Technology. He has held numerous positions within the Georgia Republican Party throughout the years.
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This may be a stupid question. Are inactive voters removed from the list by the state, or the counties?
It is obvious that votes are counted by the counties, and that voters are registered by the counties.
“But an investigation by Kemp’s office revealed that six days later, an additional 7,690 voters were moved from inactive to canceled status. The change was conducted within 90 days of an election — thereby in violation of the federal deadline. Most of the affected voters lived in Richmond County, although the problem involved other counties as well.”
I just don’t get the argument that concession is the right way to go, even if the math makes the loss inevitable.
If your team is down by 4 touchdowns with one minute to go, you still play out the minute. It’s called following the rules. Sure, fans may have left their seats, and only the crazy guy with the face paint even believes that there’s a chance, but since when is just being made to play by the rules such a thing to whine about?
‘fake’, ‘desperate’, ‘dangerous’, ‘illegal’, ‘radical’.
Kemp doesn’t lack the Trumpian manner, does he, in his disdain for those who disagree with him.
May his administration be interesting.
I think the issue at this point is to make sure all the votes are being counted and accounted for. For example, 44% of provisional ballots rejected? Didn’t a court just order them to review/count these?
Are there any other black holes that more ballots have fallen into? Isn’t it amazing that Abrams is getting better than 70% of these late/previously rejected ballots?
In any case, someday the lawsuits will be settled, the votes will be certified, and at that point I am confident Abrams will stand down. For now.
But when these problems started cropping up, the Abrams campaign was going to the SoS office to get information and understanding of what was going on. But the SoS was her opponent, so that information was not forthcoming, so what is the recourse? Lawsuits. It is Kemp’s fault- for not resigning earlier- that has caused all these lawsuits. And every story I have seen so far about the lawsuits, Abrams has won. So Kemp really was either actively suppressing votes or just not doing a good job. So don’t get all pissy about Abrams pursuing justice. Too many people have recently been told to sit down and shut up. (Or stand up and shut up in CK’s case.) Too late. The genii is out of the bottle. This is the way it is going to be. We’re not going to take it anymore.
Where was the outrage when Cox didn’t resign from SOS when she ran for Governor? All Obama appointed judges ruling. Maybe Kemp needs to appeal the decisions to some Republican appointed judges.
Find “partisan” friendly judges? Because it’s a “partisan” issue??
Elections are by definiton a partisan issue. And yes the judges who ruled in favor of Abrams so far are all Democratic appointees.
And that makes instantly rule against Republicans brought before them?
Cox recused herself from election matters during the campaign. Oh, and by the way, she lost. In the primary.
And it’s not outrage, so don’t wet your pants. Certain people are telling Abrams to shut up and give up. She is not. Yet. Just relax. It’s a process, despite the stupid rhetoric from the Kemp campaign.
He would probably try, if it looked like he was going to lose.
Oh please brother. Stacey Abrams didn’t demand to “count every vote” after the primary. She also didn’t demand to “count every vote” after her state legislature races. Why? Because she won those. So this isn’t some good government exercise in democracy on behalf of the poor, downtrodden, marginalized oppressed and disenfranchised “other” but rather hardball politics geared towards a particular result.
Second, Georgia GOP officials have every right to be scared and to demand that Abrams stand down. No, it isn’t because they are carrying on some massive voter disenfranchisement conspiracy. Funny how no one ever complains that this is going on when the Democrats win? We didn’t hear a thing about that stuff when the Democrats won Congress in 2006 or the White House in 2008 and 2012. No, the Georgia GOP is concerned that Abrams is going to find some federal judge to invalidate the election and order a new one using the “voter disenfranchisement” claims as justification. Yes, this has happened before, which is one of the reasons why “judicial activism” is one of the buzzwords of the right.
Also, with the “she has won every lawsuit” please end the sophistry. First off, the judges who sided with Abrams were in fact Democrat appointees. Second, in those lawsuits she “won” the local officials were refusing to count votes in a manner consistent with state law. The judges overrode state law and told the elections boards to count ballots that state law says are ilegal anyway. That is not “winning a lawsuit” but getting a favorable ruling from a friendly judge. Another thing: the judges in question were able to make such rulings – to override state law – precisely because they know that it won’t make a difference in the outcome. They know that the Kemp campaign isn’t going to appeal and argue that whether you personally agree or disagree with the law invalidating ballots, the law has to be followed. If there was actually a chance – any chance – that these ballots could trigger a recount or force a special election, Kemp would appeal and these decisions would be reversed on appeal. This is Totenberg and the other judges burnishing their progressive activist credibility and getting to appear to be the good guys, the resistance or the rebels up against the evil empire, with no real cost. If there was a chance that their decisions to invalidate state law – laws governing the right to invalidate ballots that have been help up on appeal – they would be a lot more circumspect.
So there is no genie out of the bottle. You don’t have to sit down and shut up if it is you don’t want to but unless Abrams is able to find a judge willing to order a new election these results will be certified on Friday – or at the very latest Tuesday which is the final day that Totenberg can stall and delay without coming up with a legal reason to that would withstand the Kemp campaign’s inevitable appeal – and at that point you will absolutely have to take it.
Abrams lost. She doesn’t have to accept it because her decision to fight on costs her nothing. She knows that this was her one shot and that the DPoG isn’t going to clear the field for her to run for election again, and that she is never going to get this fawning, uncritical coverage from the state and national media that had the effect of free advertising on her behalf, “coverage” that included repeating every charge, accusation and claim as Kemp and treating it as objective fact without challenging it in the slightest. Abrams invested the last 8 years convincing the DPoG that she could create a turnout machine capable of winning the governor’s race that would prevent candidates from having to run to the center-left and the only result was for her to prove her naysayers right. This was the perfect storm: a very unpopular GOP president, angry moderates and independents in the suburbs, the worst GOP statewide candidate since Mitch Skandalakis, a national media willing to make her candidacy a cause celebre and she still lost. So of course she has every incentive to fight, claw and scratch before she makes her inevitable exit – stage left – from public life. But that doesn’t mean that everyone else owes her anything, including being willing to drink her Kool-Aid wholesale and regurgitate it on demand.
I am looking at the major media in the state i.e. the AJC, WSB etc. Not one of them are reporting what is in this blog: the fact that all counties have reported their certified totals and that all of the ballots outstanding amount to far less than half that is needed to force a runoff or recount. And we all know the reason why: they are toeing the Abrams and DPoG party line. Well pardon those of us who aren’t in that camp for having the gall to express a diverging opinion.
It wasn’t just that she won those prior races, it was that those races weren’t nearly as close, And her opponents conceded. Counting every vote also wasn’t a central issue or concern in those races, as they have been when running against the SoS.
This race is not close either in any meaningful sense. If it were, Kemp would not have resigned and declared victory. Have DeSantis and Scott in Florida declared victory? Here is the deal: the total number of oustanding votes is not enough to make up the tens of thousands of votes needed – 15000 at last count – to force a runoff or recount. The Abrams campaign disputes the total of outstanding votes but refuses to say where those extra votes are.
Some of the outstanding votes they’ve identified may be laid out in their Court briefs. But they’re asking for a couple of things that are a stretch.
But it’s pretty darn close, and Abrams’ legal efforts are also supporting efforts by Carolyn Bourdeaux re: Gwinnett totals, and that race is only about 900 votes difference.
It’s all meaningfully close dude.
And if all the exercise does is restore confidence in voting, or inspires that every vote matters, then it’s worth it. Because that’s “meaningful”.
Gulch, Please explain how a candidate is expected to have privileged information on the exact number of outstanding votes from every county in Georgia? and why a candidate should be required to speculate how many are theirs?
So, if Kemp won, why does he still have a campaign staff sending out these petty, vicious press releases attacking Abrams on a near daily basis? fake’, ‘desperate’, ‘dangerous’, ‘illegal’, ‘radical’.. and the recent whine about ‘liberal lawyers’ filing lawsuits. If it’s over, then cut the nasty campaign and move on.
Republicans want to stop counting votes even when they are losing:
“Utah Rep. Love sues to halt vote count”
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/15/utah-mia-love-elections-991278
Just like ‘smaller government” is the answer to every policy question, “stop counting votes” is the answer to every campaign question?
Another Republican sues to stop counting votes:
https://www.pressherald.com/2018/11/15/final-ranked-choice-vote-count-slated-for-noon/
This struck me as odd, so I clicked through.
The request is not to stop the vote counting entirely, but to stop the counting so that Rep. Love can contest ballots in real-time as they are reviewed.
So she wants the recount to continue- but on her terms.
It is odd. It is pretty close to saying “Let us count the votes”.
What a thoughtful gift!!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin-company-gives-employees-handguns-153425275.html
Sorry for wrong location
Another example of how the media is in the tank for the Democrats on this (and generally):
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/judge-to-make-potentially-significant-ruling-on-georgia-absentee-ballots/872653835
Headline: “Judge to make potentially significant ruling on Georgia absentee ballots!!!”
You have to read to the bottom of the column – which most people won’t do – to find this nugget: “As many as 2,000 ballots were dismissed because of such problems.”
So this lawsuit will have NO EFFECT on the outcome because the gap is over 15000!
Still more. The AJC declared that a federal judge ruling allowed for 27.000 provisional ballots to be reviewed: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/judge-orders-review-provisional-ballots-georgia-election/ZM2yd0QGkyZ8Zi1IyVpF3H/
The deadline for reviewing those ballots have passed – 56% were counted – the results have been tabulated and Abrams is still tens of thousands of votes behind. Any follow up article by the AJC on those results? No.
We just get: “Georgia governor’s race still uncertain!”
https://www.ajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/georgia-gov-race-still-uncertain-judges-weigh-legal-challenges/8Wrll6dHjphL4MsN0qsjRM/
It claims: “Abrams’ hopes rest on a string of federal lawsuits that could trigger the counting of absentee and provisional votes that have previously been rejected. A swirl of orders have already raised the possibility that more of those ballots could soon be tallied.”
It does not report that 56% have already been tallied or that tallying the other 44% would not force a runoff.
You get this nugget: “And his strategists have dismissed Abrams’ claim that there are still roughly 20,000 ballots still pending. “All 159 counties have already counted and reported their provisional ballots,” said Kemp spokesman Cody Hall, who needled Abrams for her absence from the press conference.”
Excuse me but where is the media’s reporting on this question? Why haven’t they gone to the county election boards and the secretary of state’s office – no longer Kemp! – to verify the Abrams’ claims? Why haven’t they demanded that Abrams prove her claim?
This appears to be what is really going on. “At a cramped statehouse conference room, Groh-Wargo and other top Abrams deputies pointed to piles of paperwork with voter data to highlight the sheer number of provisional ballots cast – and criticize Kemp for not stepping down as the state’s top elections official while he ran for governor.
“In a regular campaign, the Secretary of State’s Office would be working with our team. That’s why it’s so incredible that he didn’t resign,” Groh-Wargo said of Kemp, who only stepped down two days after the election. “We were raising the alarm bells left and right.”
She accused Kemp of using the office as a political arm of the campaign, and said he “mismanaged the election to sway it in his favor.”
Trying to create the environment where some judge can get away with invalidating the election results and ordering a new one? Certainly sounds like it to me. And it is certainly nice of the media to remind everyone that Kemp had no legal obligaton to resign. Or that the Abrams campaign has provided absolutely zero evidence of the things that they are accusing him of.
But hey, this is the same media that accused Kemp of “systematically disenfranchising voters” for enforcing a state law that has been upheld by federal courts on appeal.
https://www.myajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/georgia-gov-race-still-uncertain-judges-weigh-legal-challenges/8Wrll6dHjphL4MsN0qsjRM/
The articles I read present both points of view and let the reader decide what to accept. You seem to be calling for the AJC to adopt your point of view or else.
Abrams and others have raised significant issues about voting right in state where Republican majorities have done everything they could to make it harder to register and to vote. If you think he won then lets count all the votes and the election will be over.
If you believe the media (the most well-informed citizens) is biased, and you believe higher education (the most well-educated citizens) is biased, wouldn’t you question why you are on the other side of them?
Maybe you were misled – or misunderstand- the words “potentially” and/or “significant”?
Maybe you only judge significance by winning or losing, and not how you play the game?
As for the rest, I’m just not sure you understand how evidence is gathered and presented. Do you think Judges make final decisions without evidence?
One of the best reasons for counting every single vote this time is the next time. No more “Well since we won this time we’ll figure out all this stuff out next time.” No, we’re going to figure it out this time. Issues need to be identified and resolved and perhaps changes made.
I really wish he would take more of a high road here. If he’s confident in his victory, then it’s time to start acting like a governor-elect. Recognizing how narrow a victory it is, he and his team should refrain from such hyperbolic language with respect to his opponent. Something more along the lines of “we recognize this was a close race, he will be declared the winner when all the votes are cast, and we wish Ms. Abrams well in her future endeavors” would go a long way toward making him look like less of an incompetent prick. Especially considering that he contributed to this mess by not recusing himself and by taking actions as SOS that were questionable — purging voters, exact match, etc…
What’s the latest on Delayin’ Stacey?
What all of these theft attempts show the Repubs is that there will be at least two Repub election attorneys on the ground in every single House and Senate contest in 2020. Every Single One.
Every competent candidate should have plenty of lawyers at the ready.
Otherwise you’re relying on retired volunteer poll workers, various obsolescent machines that break down (or get hacked), idiosyncratic local Elections Boards and officials, and partisan everything.