Woodall a Toss Up, McBath Leans Democratic
The best part about 2019 being 17 days old is we can start looking ahead to 2020 already.
Larry Sabato released his first “Crystal Ball” predictions for next year’s election Thursday morning. The prognosticator finds only two competitive Georgia Races: Rob Woodall in the 7th as a toss up and Lucy McBath in the sixth as a Leans Democrat.
“The GOP Toss-up column includes..two Trump-won suburban districts (GA-7 and NE-2) that were also very close in 2018 and that could break against the president in 2020,” Sabato wrote.
Republicans who are optimistic about flipping the House in 2020 should temper their enthusiasm, Sabato cautions:
“As we assess the House playing field for the first time, we think Democrats start as favorites to hold the House majority. There are a lot of little reasons that go into this assessment, but there’s one major one that really undergirds that analysis. Here’s goes:
“Even if President Donald Trump is renominated and reelected to a second term in the White House, it is not at all clear from history that his reelection would provide sufficient coattails to net the minimum needed gain of 18 Republican House seats. Indeed, the last five reelected presidents saw their parties fall short of that net total in their election years, and the House hasn’t switched from one party to the other and then back again in consecutive elections since 1952-1954 (please refer back to our piece from November for more of this history). If Trump (or another Republican) does not win the presidency, it’s almost impossible to imagine the Republicans simultaneously losing the White House but gaining the House majority.”
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Rob Woodall can’t count on Forsyth again. The blue wave in Gwinnett will wash him out to sea. I don’t know if McBath can hold that seat, if Republicans run a candidate who is not polarizing.
Sabato is right on with respect to GA-6. The problem for GOP moderates is their utter fecklessness as any check whatsoever on Trump.
I would guess there will be an effort to redraw the 6th before the next election to drop off some of those pesky democrats in dekalb. After all, the very first bullet point I got on just about every piece of Fran Millars campaign mailers was that if we in dunwoody didn’t vote for him, hank Johnson would become our congressman. I don’t think he foresaw mcbaths win and certainly not just how badly he would lose his state senate seat by.
I’d simply ask how you think it’s possible to redraw the 6th distirct before the 2020 election? It’s not possible. Now, it is possible for the districts to be redrawn prior to the 2022 election. Republicans should drop all of Dekalb out of the 6th and make it North Fulton north of the river, East Cobb and Woodstock or lower Forsyth.
Your opinion;
Would the citizenship question on the census (if itgets over ruled in the next federal court ruling) 1.) slightly lower some of the overall population gains in Georgia, and 2.) would the effect areas in the rural districts that normal list seasonal workers for the April/May harvests, push some of the boarders of the 1,2,8 & 12 farther north when added with the gains in the north fro the 2022 re-disticting?
1) Not sure to be honest. 2) There’s a re large number of illegals immigrants in the metro areas as well. So I’m not sure how much it would really change the shape of the districts. It would probably be a wash, but again I’m not sure.
Eiger, I think dropping DeKalb is twice bad for the GaGOP. It cedes competitive territory while conveying to GaGOP moderates that they don’t matter. The GaGOP will compelled to field candidates with candidates that are very right and must run hard right. We’ll see how well that works out for Kemp.
Gerrymandering has its limits when you can not broaden your appeal. The party of Trump cost Handel her seat. If things go back to pre-trump in that district Mcbath will move right or lose.
The party of Trump did not cost Karen her seat. A combination of Trump, an incompetent county party in Fulton/6th district and a state party who gave up on the suburbs cost Karen and all of those local folks their seat. This is on the back of John Watson and the Fulton county party. Watson stuck to a rural only strategy to help Kemp, but completely wrote off the suburbs. He could have done both. He is a fool and has no business running again. The Fulton county grass roots should purge their leadership as well. All they care about is rubbing elbows with politians and going to cocktail parties. They have no idea what it means to actually work and win elections. They have been worthless for the past three or four elections.
That’s why Karen lost. She is a good fit for the district and has a large appeal . She was just surround by a worthless party working against her.
Fran was doing the GOP a favor by including parts of ITP and east of I-85 DeKalb in GA-6 that leaned Dem even back in 2002. I hadn’t checked Dunwoody precincts, but I’d guess they collectively were about 50-50.
It didn’t take long for Mcbath to draw an opponent.
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-gop-senator-run-for-6th-district-seat/FaiX7DlrJS5K1erjktic9M/
SD-21 is the bluest part of GA-6, a big plus in the primary (and I think that a near certainty). Plus he’s not a woman, so he’s got that going for himself.
Beach’s problem will be insuring he’s not outflanked on the right in the primary but then running in a general where the south and east parts of GA-6 already don’t much appreciate his guns, gays and anti-choice stances.
“He is not a woman”…..wait, ARE YOU SURE?!! You’re NOT are you? How can YOU BE SURE?!
if you are a democrat isn’t that racist, homophobic, transgenderifically challenged or something…..it just DONT SOUND RIGHT!
It has to be hateful and racist if a republican said that! I am insulted. I am going out to buy a pink hat…. and join the legions of the insane.
Is liberalism a mental disorder?
…and join the legion of the insane