The civil war is upon us, not the physical one as foretold by the far left and far right, but one inside the Parties that comprise our electoral system. The Trump era has led to many firsts in American Politics, however, one of the things that this era has brought to light, not from Trump himself, but from the politics of the day is the visible and deepening fracturing of both the Democratic and Republican Parties. These schisms within both parties are what could possibly be seen as a major political realignment of American politics in the post-Trump era, and the vying for control within each party is only going to further worsen an already polarized country.
While it is often downplayed by the media, the Democratic Party is just as divided as the Republican Party, and their message of “come together” must first be applied within their own party before they can attempt to bring America together under a Biden Presidency. This is evidenced by the establishment wing of the Democratic Party pushing the phrase “Settle for Biden” as a way to try and encourage these factions to come together to oppose Trump in the general election, but now that the “Settle for” is no longer relevant, we are starting to see the cracks once again form on the surface.
The progressive and leftist wings of the Democratic Party (yes there is a difference) are both calling for increased programs from the Federal Government as a way to attempt to “equalize” America, while the Democratic establishment is less willing to give into their demands. The “Progressive” wing of the party wants Medicare for all, social welfare programs, an increase taxation on the wealthiest Americans, increases in minimum wage and a heavier regulatory burden on businesses to protect the environment. The leftist portion of the Democratic Party is moreso the radical wing, this is the faction calling for things like Universal Basic Income, nationalization of some industries, socialized medicine, massive cuts in military spending, which would lead to an overall redefinition of what American society is. The Green wing of the Democratic Party puts climate change and environmental issues at the forefront of their policy agenda seeing Climate Change as the primary factor to address. While there is a gradient to how strongly people within the green wing of the Democratic Party want to implement their policies, the most radical seek to turn back the clock and eliminate use of fossil fuels immediately in order to, in their eyes, mitigate the “climate crisis” we are currently facing.
The Social Justice wing of the Party is concerned with mitigating mistakes of the past and encouraging society to progress. Similar to the green wing of the Democratic Party, there is a spectrum of beliefs here that is difficult to summarize within a single article, but suffice to say, the core beliefs of the social justice wing revolves around what they perceive as racial, gender, class, and LGBT inequities in society, we see this in the calls for criminal justice reform, increased civil rights, and better pay for women in the workforce. This also includes an aspect of decriminalization and/or legalization of drugs no matter their schedule designation, and legalization of sex work as a way to “empower women”.
The Establishment wing of the Democratic Party, are neo-Liberals that have been in power for decades, but their power grip on the Party is starting to slip, and this is where the primary point of contention is appearing within the Democratic Party. This schism started to show immediately after the election when a feud between Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Speaker Pelosi, assigning blame on each other for their major losses in the House, Ocasio-Cortez said this was because many Democrats were not running on policies far enough to the left, while Pelosi and others assigned blame for their losses to the further left portions of the Party, since Republicans used Ocasio-Cortez and members of the “squad” as political attacks in many swing districts.
With the Democratic Establishment in the throes of retirement, many have noticed the vulnerability of top Democrats and are seeking to seize the crown and rebuild the party from the inside out into a leftist, progressive, environmental, or social justice fortress. This is going to lead to an ultimate showdown within the Democratic Party under a Biden Presidency. Biden, being part of the neo-liberal establishment, is not well liked among the other major factions, and is going to face considerable challenges from further left for not going far enough on many issues. This is going to set up a showdown for the 2022 midterms, between the members of these various factions. This drama over control of the Democratic Party will play out in primary elections, and may lead to people further to the left deepening their disenfranchisement with the Party, and either removing themselves, or potentially leading to a Party split sometime in the future. This could potentially lead to a strong challenger to Biden in 2024, which is further to the left of both Biden and Harris, but only time will tell if the militant factions within the Democratic Party will go that far. The potential of the Democratic Party eating itself is a very real possibility in the coming years, and this may detract from their ability to run viable candidates both on the state and federal level.
Schisms within the Republican Party have been apparent for years, and widely broadcast over the media. The Republican Party would be facing a similar timeline to the Democratic Party were it not for one unexpected event. Trump winning both the Primary and the general election for President of the United States, for better or worse, Trump has toppled the power structure within the Republican Party, created a new faction, and accelerated the clashing of the coalitions that make up the Republican Party
The neo-conservative establishment of the Republican Party was none to pleased to have been ousted in 2016 by an upstart populist businessman that no one took seriously to begin with. This has been shown by a lack of support from what were once the prominent Republicans in the Party, the Bushes, McCains, Mitt Romney, to name a few. Many of them chose to remain silent both in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but now, in the post Trump era they are going to seek to reassert control of the Republican Party and re-establish their influence across the nation, both on the State and federal level. It is not difficult to imagine that in the post Trump era this faction will try to come back strong and with a vengeance, seeing as how they are the most well funded portion of the Party is is possible that they may be able to reassert control for a short time as they battle other factions of the Party
The libertarian wing of the Republican Party has feuded with the neo-conservative establishment the longest, this feud goes back decades originating from the days of Barry Goldwater and Nixon, and has been one of the major political combats over the soul of the Republican Party in recent history. Reagan was able to bring these wings together during his administration and work towards a common goal by defining what an American Conservative is, someone that believes in limited government, individual responsibility and lower taxes. After the Reagan years the schism once again started to form and has taken on many different incarnations, from the Ron Paul Liberty Movement to the TEA Party, to name a couple, this will be one of the main groups trying to wrestle for control of the Republican Party in the next few years.
One cannot mention the radicals of the Democratic Party without mentioning the radicals within ones own Party, the rise of the Alt-Right, is something that can be a cause for concern, especially since they are attempting to recruit from the youth of the nation instead of the elderly. This is the radical “America First” faction, which tends to slip away from the traditional Republican belief in capitalism and making our social programs more efficient, many of them are in favor of expanding medicare and other forms of social welfare programs. This faction is adamantly isolationist, and opposed to international trade, to be more in favor of domestic markets through unions, tariffs, and economic protectionist policies. This faction seeks to win at all costs and remains on the fringes of the Party, though many are going to try and secure a seat at the table in crafting the Platform and attempt to wrest control of the Party.
The new, populist wing of the Republican party, was birthed out of Trump and his campaign for President, many of these individuals are new to the political process, though not all are. They want to call it like they see it and emulate Trump and his positions in many aspects of crafting policy and the politicians that they elect. This is an appeal to the common individual, the working class individual, something that the Democratic Party long held claim to, which has been wrested from their grasp. Trump’s concentration on the rust belt and rhetoric that would help working-class Americans is something that has been talked bout by Republicans for years, but never as adamantly as Trump. This led to the energy behind him in the Republican Primaries in 2016, and further strengthened Republican support into 2020, getting him 75 Million votes, the most of any Republican. This however can lead to a disenfranchisement if a more traditional, neo-conservative candidate is selected in 2024.
The evangelical faction of the Republican Party has been diminishing in recent years as religion in America moves more into the realm of the personal and out of the public eye, religion in and of itself is on the decline among younger Americans which is not renewing the ranks of the evangelical wing of the party as quickly as other factions. This group however, is still very strong and well entrenched in Republican politics especially in the South and mid-west, where the lion’s share of Republican votes still come from, and this faction in the past has been more than willing to ally with other factions in order to have a seat at the table when it comes to crafting the Party Platform and talking points. In order for the Evangelical wing to remain relevant not just in Republican politics, but in politics in general, they are going to have to work very hard to re-establish and entrench themselves in the national political discourse when the social fabric of America is changing very rapidly.
These are just the primary factions that will be battling for control of the Republican Party in a post Trump time, we have already seen these factions openly battling with each other in the State Legislature, the Halls of Congress, and news media, trying to one up each other in a very public way. This is going to eventually lead into some heavy collisions in 2024, as you have Republicans from every coalition battling to take control of the Party. Identity politics, once only used among the Democrats is becoming more common among Republicans as a way to tell friend from political foe, and try to go after a more diverse electorate and bring them into the “Big Tent” of the Republican Party. Here in Georgia, we can already see these schisms at work after the election. With Biden’s margin of victory being just north of 12,000, which can be equated to a single precinct in a metro-Atlanta County, or one additional vote for Biden in almost every precinct in Georgia, the fracturing and blame game has commenced and the GAGOP will be heading into a very interesting convention cycle and election in 2022. One just has to step back and look at the infighting currently happening in Georgia to get a glimpse of what is to come nationwide
Over the years the civil discourse of our country has suffered terribly through increased polarization, echo chambers, and media manipulation, and we are starting to see the results of those issues today. Instead of trying to re-establish civil discourse, both Parties are trying to put out fires within their own ranks as quickly as they start, but starting others in the process. The Democrats snubbing of Sanders in 2016 and 2020 is going to haunt them in elections to come as the progressive and leftist wings of the Party move them further to the left, and on the Right the Republican Party has to decide if it wants to stoke the fires of resistance by suppressing Trump-like candidates in the future, or continuing to allow the grassroots of the Party to make the ultimate decision on a nominee. Either way, looking at this from a 30,000 foot view, it seems like a major political realignment for the entirety of America and her two political parties. What is certain is that even in disagreement, whether that be within the bounds of the party, or between the two parties, we need to return some semblance of civil discourse, or we may get to a point of polarization in this country that cannot be returned from. These battles for control within the two parties are going to ultimately determine not just whether or not the Parties split, die off, or become radical, this is going to determine the fate of our great nation for generations to come.